男性思维剖析-男性世界广告小秘诀
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汤姆多克托罗夫 [简介]
智威汤逊-中乔广告公司
东北亚区总裁兼大中华区首席执行官
2003年7月3日
注：汤姆多克托罗夫先生基本上使用英文演讲，但是偶尔也使用了中文。我们在此保持了演讲内容的原来风貌。
Today we are going to be talking about the mind of Chinese men. This is actually the result of a lot of plans that we have and observations we had in the market about what is motivating men. Motivating. The secret of advertising - actually the secret of brand loyalty - the secret to non-commoditization, the secret to China's fundamental economic challenge, which is of course overproduction and a deflationary price environment is the creation of brands that demand a price premium.
The point is that advertising starts from the consumer inside. The consumer inside. The consumer psychology is what he is to profit. That's where loyalty comes from. That isn't just talking to an audience, but having a dialogue. What is a consumer inside? A consumer inside is fundamental. It answers the question why. 它解释根本的东西，根本的行为。A consumer inside explains behaviour and practice. A consumer inside stops when you can no longer answer the question why. You know you have an inside when there is no more why. So what we are going to do today is ultimately using our experience to come up with what I call a "master consumer inside". That is the one thing you women need to know about Chinese men to secure their romantic loyalty. And then what we are going to do is to translate that inside into different, more specific marketing applications and advertising strategies. This is not quantitative. 不是定量的，是抽象的，是一种概念的。 今天的中国，是个历史的机会。It is the new era, it is the new golden horizon that everyone of you can grab upon. So everything is perfect. Well, you know from my last presentation, nothing is perfect. The best inside has conflict. In all of us, in our heart, we have some conflicts. Are there underlying tensions? Now I hope, as I go forward, you can trust me when I say 中国男人比美国男人好很多。他们是最厉害的，最激进的，最接受挑战的。他们不是消极的，是积极的，只是他们还有一些弱点。所有文化，都有它们的长处和自己的弱点，对不对？Let's try to 坦诚相待。
（Video shows the Chinese character for man： 男）
这个是什么？What's on the top? 田；What's on the bottom? 力，OK? For our foreign guests here. This is the Chinese character for man. This is basically Chinese. Man's power in the field. Man works hard. Man does not have an easy life. He has burden. He has responsibility. Right? In China, in a Confucian society, man has to carry the weight of the family's success on the shoulder. And it has been this way for 2,500 years, 3,000 years, 4,000 years, 5,000 years. Patriarchy, 这个是孔子主义的社会。Confucian society is a patriarchic society. Confucian society which is ultimately what China still is today. Historically, woman has not had a lot of rights. The woman's primary obligation is to give birth to a child, a male heir. The man has the responsibility of succeeding and providing for the family. And it has been tough being a man in China. And it continues to be - tough to be a guy in China. You have so many responsibilities: 成家立业，三十而立, even in honouring your ancestors. OK? So you don't have to just care for your family, you don't just care for your children, not just extended family, but even dead people. All right? It's tough being a man.
Now in a Confucian society, one of the things about Confucianism - its society is the world's first socially mobile society. By studying hard, you can move forward, it is also a regimented society, 就是说有很多的结构，有很多等级制度的。So, luckily, men always knew where he stood; men always knew whether he was measuring up to what a successful man should be - has always been like this. How was this in Confucian society? Well, success has always been relatively narrow. The definition of success has always been relatively "窄，比较窄". Society defines success. Success is not the individual. Western culture ultimately relies on the individual to define his own success. Asian culture, Confucian culture primarily relies on a society structural definition of success. It was a regimented pattern. It was a pattern that did not leave a lot of room for interpretation. But on the positive side, at least I know the way. What was the way? Those who excel scholarship become officials. Let me try to read this:"学而优则仕". How about this one? "劳心者治人，劳力者治于人"Those who work with mind rule; those who work with strength be ruled. In Chinese Confucian culture, the mind was the ultimate weapon. The mind was the ultimate weapon of success on the battlefield of life. Sharpen the mind, master the mind, you will succeed.
But not just intelligence - focusing intelligence, structural intelligence, regimented intelligence. There was a clear hierarchy by absorbing and understanding Confucian texts, 比如说四书五经，等等. A man could move forward by becoming an expert at how Confucian defined the ideal society, and how successful dynasties and emperors defined the ideal society, all - mostly, more or less, give or take, they went up they went down, but they're still up there - Confucian precepts a man to succeed. There was a hierarchy, a narrow hierarchy. At the bottom of an imperial society were the merchants - those who worked with your hands. Excuse me, those who worked with your money. Actually, this has something in common with Europe in the Middle Ages. Jewish people, you know, 我是犹太人. The reason why Jewish people are so good with money is because when we were thrown out of most of the European society, the only thing we Jews were allowed to do was the dangerous work - touch the money. So we developed a special little skill. In China, it was the same as in Europe in a way, money was dirty. Well, it was not, but dealing with money was dirty. Farmers, they work with hands, they were the less level, they were producing something out of the earth in a fundamentally agricultural society. And finally scholars and officials, they were at the top of the hierarchy. There was not a lot of room for interpretation here.
Now if you received wisdom contained in the classics, you looked back, you didn't look forward. You looked back. You memorized what was prescribed, what was mandated. It was not an assimilative intellect, it was a logical, analytic intellect. There was of course a hierarchy, a structural route to success. The district exams - became government students, those who passed. This is by way of 2% of the population, or 2% of the people who took the test, then provincial exams - became employable men, then metropolitan exams - became presentable scholars, and finally the palace exams. 0.2% of those people taking the tests became advance scholars. And this system of the civil service exams, basically continued until the fall of the Qing Dynasty, and it reached the peak of regimentation of rigidity -- 不是灵活的，最高水平的死板 - in Qing Dynasty. So it was there from 2,000 years ago, 1,800 years ago really until 1900. But the good thing - there was one sure road to Rome - if I succeed at these tests, if I can master this knowledge, I will succeed. It is laid out for me. There is no guarantee that I can pass the tests, but there is guarantee that if I do pass the tests, things will be OK. Master your prescribed knowledge, assure your success, and ultimately, the success was within the control of yourself. If you sharpen your mind, if you take control of your mind, if you are able to discipline your intelligence and your intellect, you will succeed.
But then things changed. Mao came.
(Video shows the life during the Cultural Revolution )
You know the Chinese character for revolution is what? 革命, what's its meaning? It has two meanings, right? One is leather, the other is an re-establishment of a described order. The Chinese definition of revolution is not the same as an American, Western, French, British, Italian definition. When we say revolution we mean things are going differently, but when Chinese say revolution they mean putting it back the way it should be. And of course you don't call the Communist revolution a "革命"，我们叫它"解放"。But it was a "革命"in the Chinese sense of the word. Because in the Chinese sense of the word, there were still many aspects of Confucianism on which Mao based his control. One of them, again, was continued regimentation of how to succeed. The content changed a little now, but success was again based on the assimilation and understanding of prescribed knowledge. Success under Mao until the early 80's was based on the command of Marxist, Leninist, Maoist, now Deng Xiaoping, Jiang Zemin knowledge. Pay off again from mastery. Pay off from mastery to become higher on the government structure in a Party career. Things are changing always… today, payoff does no longer come from mastery. Today, payoff comes from many, many more things, so things are no as easy to be articulated as they were in the past. There are many forces shaping Chinese men today.
Now, I do not want to suggest that American society does not also have a hierarchy. Of course, it too, has a hierarchy. But the social class system in America, although it is very hierarchical, we have, frankly speaking, we have lower lower, middle lower, upper lower, lower middle, middle middle, upper middle, lower upper, middle upper upper upper … OK? We've got a lot of it, the difference is that there are many combinations that go into what your social economic status, and they have equal weights. One, your family's background. I, for example, is a Jewish person, and it's going to be very difficult for me to become upper class, because upper class is more than just money. Family background, education, money … all of these come together into a very complex equation of what middle class means.
In China, the definition of social hierarchy has always been relatively narrow. What I am going to say is something some of you might find controversial. The definition of success in class has always been, just as what it was in the past and continues to be up today, relatively strictly defined. DEng Xiaoping, when he went to Guang Zhou in 1992, he said, "To get rich is glorious." He defined a new social hierarchy, a new social hierarchy of money and wealth-defining status. This is not to say that it is the only thing that defines status. Pay off will make somebody successful, admiring. Scholarship will, too. The fact is that relative to other cultures it is our contention that money defines success. We do believe in China, relative to other cultures, even other Asian … South-eastern Asian cultures and Japanese cultures, Taoist cultures for example, money takes on a new role, because it has been mandated and has been endorsed by leadership. Today, the hierarchy has reversed, but there are still a hierarchy - workers, farmers at the bottom (蓝领工是最低水平的), public servants, officials and businessmen at the top, which is why of course Jiang Zemin "三个代表"is in fact a quiet revolution. It implicitly recognizes that they perhaps represent the advanced productive forces of society, maybe. The goal of modern society is singularly, more so than other cultures, try to get money and become rich. There are pressures to become rich. How many men here can get married before their girlfriends' parents know you can afford a nice apartment in downtown Shanghai. Money is still the definition of a reliable person - somebody who can provide a "踏实将来、美满将来、幸福家庭". So, money is important.
Now capitalism, on the other hand, is a little bit different. Capitalism is ultimately rooted in entrepreneurism, not just money, not just the acquisition of wealth. Capitalism is rooted in individual's ability to say, "You know what, I think I disagree with this. I'm going to do something in my own way." Why is Bill Gates so admired? Bill Gates is so admired not just because he was rich, but because he dropped out of Harvard, because he was able to say, "I have a better way." And then you became rich. It is an independent risk-taking initiative. Entrepreneurism is like gambling. It is yourself to overcome the odds of the system. It is an implicit belief that although there is no guaranteed path, if I believe that I can find my own way, I will. Entrepreneurism is fuelling capitalism. Go to Guang Zhou, you see it for yourself if you are in China today, but entrepreneurism in terms of moving against social structure isn't familiar to Chinese people, and hasn't been, it always has taken continued place within a fairly regimented social structure.
Now, really this is a 1990's word, early 1990's. But this concept of being adrift boldly on a raft is not a concept that exists in the American capitalism. We don't have an equivalent translation of "下海". In fact, education, because of fundamentally different economic and social structures, is very different between capitalist societies and Confucian-day society. In Confucianism, education is just suggested, it's about mastery of fixed knowledge. Payoff comes from meticulous expertise, while meticulous means detail; expertise again mastery. It is static; it is deep; it is conceptual; it is beautiful; it is, however, static. Capitalism, on the other hand, depends on being able to analyse a new situation and to seize the opportunities. That's what education is. When the Western people take tests, they are weak and are the worst, for example, in America in the world, at math. Why is that? Because our education system isn't geared toward that. Our education system is geared more on a lateral, assimilative mode. The payoff is , as they say in Latin, anybody ever see the movie with Robin Williams? - "Seize the day!" I see an opportunity, and I'm going to catch it. It is dynamic, involving, and it implicitly recognizes that things never change. The Chinese government is now understanding that as well as it tries to reshape its curriculum for the colleges and high schools, but implicit in this is non-certainty - education cannot guarantee success today in China. That is why in just one poll on the Internet 75.43% - there is some quantitative support - suggests that the most important thing in success is a pioneering spirit, 1.3% say education; 2.39% say family background, 10.53% say opportunities, and 10.24% say the mind of a genius. This is to suggest that pioneering spirit is new ideal, and a new tool.
It also requests a little bit of uncertainty. Confucian society defines success on a singular pattern. The route to success is under a "no pain, no gain" belief, like working out, like going to the gym, like diet. I'm going to go to pain, but I know I will get muscles and I will lose weight. It is certain - if I suffer, if I command, I can win. Capitalism, on the other hand, is based on the individual. He shapes his own definition. Success route is based on high risk, high return, just like what you're learning from efficient capital market. But it is uncertain. It is not certain. Actually there is an uneasy marriage in the minds of men when they are approaching their master inside, between society's definition of success which is fairly rigid and the way he gets there which is broad and becoming increasingly more dynamic. Men today believe that they used to know the way but now ... success is who, whom? You've got a roof, you've got a mouth, you've got another mouth, you've got money, you've got field, you've got boost, you've got consumption of wealth. To get rich is glorious, that is the ideal, but how can I get there? DEng Xiaoping says crossing the river by feeling the stones. "摸着石头过河。"Not so certain, is it? Crossing the river by feeling the stones - it's a trying period, it's risk-taking, it's a maze. So Chinese men today have a magnificent destination - they are freer, they have more choices, and they can grab the golden ring as they ever could before, but there is an unsure road. How do I get there? Now this is not to say that Chinese men are fearful. Chinese men are the most ambitious, aggressive men on the planet. They can move forward, the result was he was to fall anxiety. Chinese men have "焦虑". 焦虑不是怕的意思。焦虑是一个不明的、不舒服的感觉。It's not fear, it's like having a little rock in your shoe that never comes out. And ultimately, what marketers to do is help Chinese men manage this anxiety. Because today, Chinese men do not feel like they can control their destinies like what they could in the past. Today the payoff is brighter than ever, but the ability to control it is less in their control, less in their hands. And what you are going to be doing is having this master inside about the conflict between a rigid social definition of success and a lack of sureness if we're getting there into different advertising that had been used successfully in China in marketing to Chinese men.
So let us begin with the following six advertising themes. The first one is the most obvious - Project Status. 表现出地位。People have anxiety（焦虑）, so they have to, if they don't really have confidence, if they really are not sure of their social stature of their prestige, they have to display what they do have. They have to magnify what they do have and they have to feel bigger than perhaps they do inside. Now let's claim a few ways that, this is again the most basic marketing rule in Chinese men marketing - status. OK? There's not a lot of room for interpretation here. He has to be big, he has to be bold, he has to be bald. Let's see some public examples: first, 海王金樽 (video show) Why? OK? This is basically using all imperial imagery as status, very average advertising, but successful. The next is for Youngor Suits. Youngor Suits are just about looking elegant and having class, and it's ultimately based on creating something called the Youngor Man. Youngor, a note of course, he gets the girl, too. The final status commercial is for Virgin Airlines. What they are doing is a little bit more sophisticated but it's still status-based They have a little price premium, which was called aroma therapy. I don't know what aroma therapy is -- you smell it; then you get better. I don't know. But this is ultimately about if you have enough status, then we will offer you personalized service, service only for you. Here is Virgin Airlines (video show).
Anyhow, theme No. 2: give him tools. If a man is feeling a little bit helpless, he will need help, he will need an external aid to help him grab success, to extend his arm just a little bit, so that he can grab something that might be a little bit higher than what he can normally reach. One obvious way of doing this is confidence from boss approval, which will be an external aid. If the boss approves of me, I can go further, I can leverage my boss's endorsement of me. Now this of course can be true in any culture, but in China the idea of pleasing the boss takes on residence in advertising. Let's play an example of this - Rejoice Shampoo. Rejoice is all about confidence. It's about female confidence and it's about male confidence. But in this case, the man's soft and shiny hair makes him a better translator, and that makes him impress the boss with great hair - Commercial ends with handshake. We know that the guy with a soft and shiny hair is destined for a better tomorrow. Another tool is technology. Technology in China is not just about productivity, it is a weapon on business battlefield, is a military weapon and it helps you defeat enemies, competitors. Technology is ultimately about empowerment It's I've got something you don't have, I've got it done. Now, technology in Siemens mobile telephone commercial (video show). This is just about one example of GPRS interconnectivity. It enables you to get on the net, stay on the net. And of course, he too, at the end of the commercial, gets the girl. Now I promise you, we're going to talk more about getting the girl just a little bit later. Let's first go through this technology stuff, shall we? I'd like to show you something for fun, the Santana ads, the Santana car. This is a very, very direct technology as empowerment, but it's a very ugly embarrassing execution, just because your strategy is good doesn't mean that you can have execution like this. It's Car Man.
Theme No 3 - releasing aggression. Because society has regimentation, because there are not enough outlets for success, it's ultimately about money and the chances of getting there are not sure, man has repression. Chinese men tend to be a little bit repressed, that is they don't express their desire so openly. Sometimes they have to stand a little bit back and control the expression how they feel in their hearts, and control the power that they know they want. So when a man in advertising succeeds, he doesn't mean to merely succeed - he should succeed in romance. He should succeed with a spectacular victory that is at times larger than life. This would, of course, explain this - Kongfu. The most recent Kongfu movie was what - big one? "英雄"，张艺谋的"英雄"。What was it about? Emperor Qin, First Emperor Qin. Now this was a guy that was larger than life, this was a guy that basically reorder the entire universe of China and control it. He basically changed the direction of cultural rivers, brought it under his command, so it was no coincidence that this man was the central subject of a Kongfu movie. Because Kongfu is ultimately about the release of inner power, and it's about the control of inner power. In fact, what is Taiji? Taiji is based on not Confucianism but Taoism - Ba Gua, and ultimately, Taiji is replicating a prescribed order of nature. The movements of Taiji are circular, as is the order of nature. But we're getting in for another presentation on, so I'll go back to here-Kongfu. The point is that Kongfu is ultimately about the release of ambition. And here, for example, not just victory but spectacular victory is advertising for ADSL, Internet service, which isn't as fast as what it says it is, particularly at night. But anyway, it's there. The next commercial I'm going to play is a little less obvious. And that's for Motorola. Actually, I think that Motorola, which is one of our biggest client - motor, motor, motor - is a very successful male advertiser, very successful. And here is one of their ads I like the most, which is about karaoke. And ultimately, it's more abstract. It's about the fantasy of being bigger than you actually are, being able to express what you can't express. Now here's what we're going to get a little bit sensitive. And I'm saying this just in my own opinion and I don't want to say this too strongly. There is a difference between patriotism (爱国主义的)and nationalism (民族主义的). Patriotism is a simple love for country. Chinese of course are very patriotic as are most other nations. Nationalism has a little bit more - let's say in edge, a little bit more frustration with how the world sees you. Nationalism is about a country's role in the world. China is a relatively nationalistic society. Not just proud of China - When China to assume its rightful place as a world power. Nationalism is particularly strong in China amongst the younger generation - 18 to 34, just the liberated generation. Patriotism is strong everywhere - the taxi drivers, the grandfather, his 8-year-old kid. But nationalism is a particularly youthful phenomenon. And as soon as you crossed 35 years old, the tone of the discussion changes. The question is on this one why. Why are young people more nationalistic when the young people have the most freedom, have the most to be grateful to the country for opening themselves up to the rest of the world? We believe that it's due to - what we are talking about before - a certain repression, a certain frustration with not being able to necessarily achieve what you know in your heart in the world, a risk of not being able to quite get there. It's a displaced repression onto the national stage. That's why when we say, in a little bit feeling, China is great, am I great too? I'm Chinese. China is great, then I'm great. And this nationalism can be very effectively used in advertising, and it is one of the common aims China's greatness as a nation relative to the rest of the world. This is targeted exclusively at young people; nationalism does not work for older people, but patriotism does. The next commercial that I'm going to play is a Coke commercial where I believe this is Li Tie, soccer, OK, going out to a world tour, bringing China's glory everywhere. I want to say that this commercial would've never won in America. We have our own American glory despite our patriotic American desire. This is a Chinese commercial in the fullest sense of the word. Yao Ming, China Unicom, guess how much money China Unicom spends on his powerful advertisement? It spends 4.8 million RMB on this, on this endorsement. Why? Because Yao Ming is a national hero. China Unicom is the telecommunications company of the future. We're working with China Unicom right now to try to help them figure out a way to better use Yao Ming as more than just a nationalistic icon. But ultimately, it's working, and Still, it's got high awareness. Everybody knows that Yao Ming was associated with China Unicom. You can call into advertising even though he has no real relationship with the category. It's an artificial association, but nationalism can make it work sometimes.
Here comes a little bit for fun, OK? Help him pass the girl test. When we talk about love in China, women expect one thing, they want you to prove your love. They will not believe words, that's why we very rarely say "I love you" in China, even the younger generation. Men have to prove their reliability. This is because men, again, traditional role is to be a supplier, to be a provider for the family. And women expect that from a man. A Chinese marriage which is based on "美满将来" -- as I said - has material, children and romance. It is not象美国等西方国家一样，每天浪漫，它代表一个婚姻的幸福。我没说在中国浪漫不是重要的，肯定它是很重要的，但它是一部分的，不代表核心, 33%, or something like that. So a man is feeling under pressure from his girl, from his wife. It starts as early as 16 years old. So what a marketer can do is help get the man back on top. Let's take a way of doing this, of getting the man in control of the situation with respect to the girl. And this is what we're ultimately talking about - taking the control away from the girl just a little bit, giving him leverage over her. The first commercial is Siemens. This is a very young persons' commercial, in which the feature is just a camera and the camera helps him impress the girl. Let's look. "Now you'll wait for me without complaining." It's like this commercial are saying, "I figure out a way." The next commercial is for slightly older people. These are people that are getting married, and I shot this commercial last year. This is about a man and a woman... the woman says, "oh, the moon is so romantic!" And what does the man do? He goes and gets her the moon, and at the same time comes out with a diamond ring - three months of the salary ... yes, big one too, proving his love. Romance and materialism fuse into one. Next is Deluxe. This is targeted to the American men, American family. Deluxe easy-wash paint. Basically, this is about a husband and a son. They're bad when the wife is away. They spill things but they find a way to get themselves out of trouble and keep the woman away. I think we're having the same problem. Speaking of wedding rings. These are just in figures. The penetration rate for diamond engagement rings for couples in households making over 5,000 RMB per month in Shanghai is 84% while seven years ago the penetration was 9%. The penetration in Japan is 61%. The average income of a Japanese man is 8 times more than an average Shanghai man. The wedding ring is playing a certain role here. In Beijing, which is of course not nearly as Westernized, 66% penetration. In Guangzhou, which is of course just like Hong Kong and they like gold and jade, 73%. The wedding ring is a prove of man's ability to provide for the woman in a way that isn't in other countries. A sub-theme is also to get him back on top, making him the master. At home, the man is at best a 50/50 partner. But outside the home it's a man's, man's world. Women, outside in public spaces, tend to be much more feminine. Take a look for example at the difference between United Airlines and American Airlines, where the waitresses and stewardesses are 96 years old, and their idea of good service is spilling the coffee on your shirt not on your pants. And they always yell at you, you know. I feel always guilty with that. Whereas on a Chinese airline, in a Chinese lounge room, in a Chinese massage parlour, which by the way do not exist in the West, despite what you have seen, despite what you might have heard or seen or in her movies, these massage parlours, these houses of beauty and cute, they are in the corners of our society in the West. In China, they're brightly lit up, multicoloured, with their menu of price lists right in the front window, right? You just multiply the normal massage price by 10 and then you get special service. So the sexualisation of women outside the house is extreme in Chinese society just as it is, by the way, in Japanese society. Let's play for example a commercial for Shick. We are not just talking about a guy attracting a woman; we're talking about a guy because of the sharp blaze which makes his face sharp and handsome - conquering the woman. Did the woman like the commercial more than the man for some reason?
Another sub-theme in terms of getting the man back on top and having his way with woman is using rules not muscles. Obviously the most intellectually challenging man in the continent, in the world. Is anybody here Australian? Our Australian men, when they want to impress a girl, what will they do? They all live by the beach, right? You know they are a few miles within the beach. So when they want to say, "I want to impress you", they take off their shirts and they say the beach is that way. They show up their muscles; they show up their bodies. In China, the body is not nearly as sexy as a sexy mind, since in China, because this is still a society that has barriers that need to be woven round, not barriers that need to be crashed, ruined. In China, the mind wins. So anything we can do to make the man seem smarter will be an attractive thing for his girl. Let's play a couple of commercials. Again, one Siemens targeted to younger people, and the goal is just simply to impress her with his intelligence. And it's no coincidence that when he uses his mind he is standing proudly like the Statue of Liberty. He is using his mind on this occasion. The next commercial is perhaps a little bit older, another good one - Motorola ads of using the mobile phone to romance the girl again but more sophisticated. Intelligence gets her. The next commercial is McDonald's, and this is for the engagement period. Wonderful McDonald's commercial. Look how he impresses her, and she is still not satisfied. Isn't that typical? Where are the chicken wings?
Another sub-theme here is to save his face with humour. If the man has a tough time pleasing the girl, if the girl or wife is giving him a lot of pressure, if he is going to feel just a little bit degraded, save his face with humour. He is not very successful with women, but he is able to, on the other hand, always project a smiling, happy, tongue in cheek, take-it-with-humour approach. Now let's play another television that uses the same approach of humour. to save face. Finally another good Motorola ad, and again, humour. To combat a very difficult girlfriend.
So that's the 4th theme of passing the girl test. The 5th theme is to leverage friendship. Now in China there 2 types of friendship. One is the friendship that goes back a long time, friendship for trust, for retreating it to trust. You can always trust that. These friendships are friends of hearts and there is an everlasting bond. And when time gets tough, the man is getting confused with all the changes that are going on around him, he knows he can depend on the friends of time-gone-by, the classmates, the college dormitory mates. Anybody that comes afterwards is not going to be the quite the same type of friends. Let's play the commercial that gets to the beautiful retreat into friendship that can always be counted on. This is a multi-generational friendship. It stood the test of time. Now the second type of friendship, and I realize this isn't exactly the friendliest word, but is "酒肉朋友". This is an untapped opportunity. I have not been able to find any commercials that leverage this dynamic. This basically assumes that if I haven't known you for a long time, I cannot trust you a hundred percent. But I need to be able to trust you, so that we can both move forward, so that we can both benefit. A beer - primary role, as you can see in advertising, is social lubrication, which means making friends - normal English. But ultimately it's about turning a situation which is not a hundred percent trustworthy into one that is trustworthy. And this is an opportunity waiting to happen - that the beer or the alcohol that recognizes the dynamics of contemporary friendship amongst men that don't go way back can make a lot of money. Sorry we couldn't find a commercial of this kind.
And finally, the 6th - making him an expert. As we have seen there is anxiety. There is a little bit of nervousness, again, it's not fear, only anxiety. So if he cannot be sure that he can succeed in business; if he cannot be 100% certain that his career will be successful, making him command, making him in command of non-business situations, so that in some areas of his life, he can say, "I am the best after all." This will explain, in my view, the Shanghai men in the kitchen. I wondered how can such a male-dominated historical Confucian culture ever accept men cooking in the kitchen and women not doing anything. Just kidding. The answer is because he is in command. He has his own domain. He is sharpening his expertise. We actually did focus groups on this very matter, so we get a little bit insight into how different people interpret control in a different way. And the most interesting folk that we found was, "I may not feel in charge in the living room, but in the kitchen, it's mine." Right? Or it can be sports - golf, golf as a command of the self … ability just as in the past, control of the mind. This is about control of one's own body in focusing concentration. And it is that reason why they are so addictive and it is that reason why they are spreading so quickly in China and not just amongst the money class. And of course, going back to the very beginning, culture is still a vibrant cultural value, a vibrant value of learned Chinese people and people that desire to have a modern life style. So command of culture can also work. Here are a couple of commercials that do this. The first one is physical mastery, and this is big impression - tea. It's a diet tea, making you in command of the sea. This is command of non-business situation. Nobody has a better body than him. Nobody skis as good as he does. That was you! And the final commercial that we're going to play is another expert. It's for SUNTORY beer - command of fishing, command of a sport. Please play. It's this big man. We're reaching our conclusion page. What we've basically hypothesized is that Chinese man today is a little bit torn between conflicts. Inside springs from conflict. On the one hand, he has a magnificent destination, he has opportunities that he has never had before and they represent a historic, heroic, bold breakthrough as we march into the 21st century. But on the other hand the world is not as sure as it is before, the result is a lingering - not fear, not passivity - but a lingering anxiety, a lack of complete certainty that he has what it takes to make it, because for the first time a pioneering spirit, an ability to seize new opportunities that passing in front of them is the hallmark of what makes a successful man. So marketers have an opportunity to relieve that tension. We've given you six ways.
One is the most basic - project status, make the man feel bigger than what he actually is by making him a badge, a badge of status. Second, give him tools, enable him to extend his reach a little bit beyond what he might normally be able to do all by himself, give him an external aid. Third, release his aggression. In a society with a narrow definition of success, however glorious, there is repression. So, let it all out. Let him not just have a victory, but let him have a spectacular and heroic victory. Next, help him pass the girl test. A man has responsibility. The responsibility of a man is to provide for the entire family -- the extended family, and as we saw - dead ancestors; the woman expects a lot, so give him some control with respect to the woman, help him feel that it is a 50/50 relationship, which sometimes he might not feel. Finally, the 5th, the leverage of friendship. If there is not certainty in that fast-changing outside world, help him retreat into the comforts of friendship and have your product associated with this security of friendship. The right type of friendship, because there is another type of friendship. And that is friendship that is utilitarian, that is useful. And in this case, the dynamic is take a little bit of lack a trust and make it 100% trustworthy. And finally, make him an expert. If he can't necessarily win all his dreams inside his career, help him become a master of that outside it. And that's all we have to say today for "the Mind of Chinese Men."
Thank you!
提问与回答
Q: I'm from Reeb Beer. How do you like it? Which category will you identify it to the success of commercial?
A: Well, frankly speaking, I don't know if I've seen the Reeb beer commercial that you're talking about. The Reeb commercial that I'm familiar with is the Shanghai commercials. Where do they fit in? I hate to say this, but they fit in on the nationalism slide. OK? Because all that the Reeb Beer is doing, and frankly I think it's very 表面的。不好意思，They are trying to associate a great city with a great man. All right. You're Shanghainese, so you're great. Just in the same way that nationalism works but of course, it is on a much narrow level. There is nowhere more to go. This could be any product. There is nothing inherent about the beer figure. It's working like Yao Ming, there is no beer in Reeb. I think that they can integrate the role of a product much more effectively. But as it stands, I wonder what they are going to do next, because the product is missing.
Q: Can you do a slight comparison between Western guys and Chinese guys?
A: Sure, Western guys are 笨; Chinese guys are smart, all right?
Q: I am sure there are more than that, for example like status, or ...
A: Let me just say we're all human beings. OK? Status is important to everybody; success is important to everybody; money is important to everybody. But different societies have different centres of gravity. Let me talk just a little bit about Western society. May I? Western society is rooted in what we call monotheism - believe in one god. Our god is different from your gods. 我是无神论者，但这个是我们的历史影响。Monotheism is my relationship as an individual with the all power. I have a relationship with God, it's a 2-way dialogue. Abraham, Yitzhak, Moses, Jacob, Jesus - Jesus was God, OK? But they all act in a relationship with god; and in that relationship, if the individual accepts god into the heart - the moral code of god into the heart - the individual is able to change his destiny, and not just change his destiny, but possibly change society's destiny. Judaism, the first monotheist religion, is about the ability to create a heaven on earth because of my relationship with god. So the value of the individual is dipped right into the religion. As a result, in the West, what we call simple institutions designed to protect the right of the individual have developed. The Bill of Rights, Congress, the Magna Charta, Parliament - these are all laws designed to protect not government interests but individual interests. This is not to say that all politicians in the West are honest, of course not, but the system is designed to protect the rights of the individual and balance the individual's rights v.s. society's rights. So, as a result - now we're getting more to the point, right? - there is more of a focus on individualism in the West. Because of civil institutions, there is a sense that society is safe. And that I can bounce around a little bit; I can express myself a little bit. Because society has padded walls, even if I fall, it will be OK, so the individual can experiment, not just because he is protected, but because of his view of society as a protection.
In China, it's different. In China we believe that society is relatively fragile. We believe that we have high periods and low periods. Society goes in cycles, just like Taiji, up and down, gets better and worse. So things aren't safe; the outside world can't be dependent on. Society is fragile. I'm walking in a glass palace, that's why values such as balance, cleverness, conformity coexist uncomfortably sometimes with aggression and forward movement. So to answer your question, because of a monotheistic base, the Western man has a centre of gravity that is more rooted in individual right and individual capability. He can define success on a much, much, much broader platform. If I'm happy, I'm a success. Of course, it's not a hundred percent or zero percent. 但一般说是这样的。我二哥，就很成功;我的大哥是一位副市长, but my little brother is a cook, and he is happy. He's still happy and he is so satisfied with being able to define himself.
Q: You talked about 6 themes. But you know, as China is developing with the world, maybe faster every year, so China is now not only attracting more capital from the world. Also, China is beginning a new strategy to invest more in foreign countries. So that will be inevitable in future that Chinese manufacturers will not only market their products within China but also in Europe, America and other countries. So would you like to give some suggestions on our future promotion activities, including commercials in Western countries?
A: Yes, I can give you some advice in a short sentence, OK? Oh, sorry, I didn't mean to make fun of you. This is not about men, this is about how to market abroad. Chinese companies have to understand the difference between products and brands. Chinese manufacturers have to start inside to develop brands. What is a brand? A brand is not awareness; a brand is not a commodity; a brand is not 我是中国最厉害的！That's not a brand. A brand is a relationship with the consumer that is really with the consumer inside. As soon as China begins to develop a brand, it can charge a premium. And then it can get to export something that has a quality perception that goes beyond reliability. Reliability is what小天鹅has as a household washing machine. Nobody thinks 小天鹅is my life partner.小天鹅is an OK washing machine that won't break down and I have a warranty. So China has to de-commoditize itself by understanding the difference between a brand and a product. And that is rooted in the inside. That is rooted in this. So as soon as the enterprises of China really understand this and restructure their organizations to develop brands -because it's not just a religious conversion, it's structural organization - then they can make progress with brands. You have to export brands. Until then, they will be exporting brandless tennis shoes to world market, or computer, or whatever, but they won't be brands. So, create brands.
Q: You define Chinese population as the youth, the old, the woman and the middle class, don't you? how do we differentiate men from the middle class?
A: Well, there are also old people. But I haven't got there. I, basically, define Chinese society in 5 segments. The youth - the people between 18-34, or 16-34; women; the new woman, the urban woman; the urban man; and then the middle class, what you either call "中产" or "小康", depending whether you want to be politically correct or not. I'll give you one sentence summary of middle class, if you don't mind. The middle class is about how people choose between 2 fundamental needs. They have to be balanced. So the conflict between the middle class is between projection表现出自我保护，他们在所有中产的人心里存在. They exist between in all middle class people. Because they still don't have a lot of money, but they have enough money to help them make consumer choices, so you have to choose between these 2 urges. And then marketers help reconcile those urges. The middle class is about how to make a man feel more control. I mean a man. It's about how to make him feel more control, less anxiety.
Q: I have 2 questions. The first is: what are the general principles you use to measure whether an ad is effective or not? The second question is that for marketing people what suggestions you have to help them to build a strong connection with the actual product, with the core product.
A: The first question is how do you define the success of an ad? Not how do you measure? We can talk forever on "how do you measure", but it's a research question. But a successful ad has 3 things - you can call it A, B, C. One, it has to create awareness; it has to be seen and remembered. Two, it needs to be branded, that means the ad has to be associated with your product. And three, it needs to communicate what you want it to communicate. If I want to say my car is the most elegant design, then an ad should communicate that. If all these things are working together, it should result in something called persuasion, while you change people's opinions about your brand and you need to increase purchase intent. This is a very complicated question, but you can easily tell what a good ad is and what a bad ad is once you see it working in market places. So, you should be measuring your advertisements, but different ads need different measure, and I don't want to go much further. You can say, "Oh, we're王牌, we're TCL, and we're the creators of a better tomorrow for the Chinese family. We're innovative, we're trustworthy, blab blab" The corporate ad has two goals. The first goal is to please the investment community. I'm not joking. This is what we call the "billboard near the airport", so that the investors are coming on a plane and see the billboard. Consumers don't care what the billboard says, but the investor community says, "Oh, they're advertising." That's one reason. It might be a waste of money; it might not be a waste of money. In China, because you have a history of state-owned enterprises with goods that are not reliable, Chinese people don't necessarily trust the basic quality of a brand. Chinese in general believe, that the bigger the corporation the better. The bigger the scale the more reliable its products will probably be. That's why you can have a company like Chunlan, and it can produce everything from air conditioners, to refrigerators, to motorcycles, to trucks, to engines. Because it's a big brand. So corporate advertising, just as general ad does in the United States is to design to have product reliability taken away by consumers. Reliability. But reliability is a very shallow base on which to build loyalty. Corporate advertising is usually, usually 90% of the time, waste of money.
Q: From my point of view, there are basically 2 category of advertising. The first one is the functional appealing; and the second one is the emotional appealing. Just now, you showed the ads are all, I think, fit into the emotional appealing. But now in China a lot of ads are only in functional appealing, and they succeed and sell the product. How do you see this?
A: Sometimes functionality works; sometimes functionality isn't enough, it depends on the product category. I don't have a lot of functional ads here is for 2 reasons: One, because you usually have based on insides, which tend to be less long-term effective when you don't have an inside. And secondly, emotional ads and functional ads are not mutually exclusive. Function can reinforce the emotion, and the emotion can reinforce the function. Siemens, for example, has lots of functionality in, but it has what we call a payoff. Sophie! We spent 15 seconds there on what we call the demo: why there is no side leakage, why you can turn around at night and not have any spillage - ah! It's awful! But you always end with a payoff of that "I'm confident to achieve tomorrow." So the division between function and emotion is artificial. They work hand in hand, and what we were talking about is the weight of each, No. 1. No. 2. If you're telling me that there're a lot of successful Chinese ads that just talk about the product and have nothing to do with the consumer inside for motivation, I'll show you a product that I can come and take away tomorrow. I can just defeat it like that. So, show me this after somebody does good communications with a good marketing strategy. Right now the landscape of China advertising is mostly heroic, functional which is why it is so easy right now to win in China from an advertising perspective because so few people do it well.
Q: In last year's speech, you said that women are complicated; men are much simpler. Do you mean that women want more than men in today's speech?
A: I still maintain that woman's primary challenge is balance, balance of different ideals - balance of a woman as a achiever, balance of a woman as a soft and kind mother, balance of a woman who pays attention to her own needs individually defined. Men don't have this identity issue. Men, it's a question of anxiety whereas women are balancing. Men, sort of go deep in terms of how to deal with something that they never feel comfortable about. Women are, in China, more comfortable than men, all right? But men have a heart to burden; women have a heart to balance.
Q: How to avoid overuse of confidence? And how to approach some segments that may not use such kinds of successful approach, for example, the older generations?
A: How to avoid overuse of overconfidence? Well, I'm not saying use confidence, you know, like a lot of butter spread on the bread, but I'll answer the question by saying, if you have an inside, and if you have a product uniqueness, you put them together, you come out with a brand identity and then an advertising strategy, you never overdo it, because you never forget about the product. It's not just about inside; it's about inside married with the product and how the product helps the inside and how the inside helps the product. So, don't forget about the product. Don't just go and go with an inside, because a brand vision is a fusion of product and inside. For the old people. Frankly speaking, older people - by older people, I mean older than 42, 43. These people had a hard life, and they're not nearly as interested in all the subjects that we're talking about. So I really agree with you that for older people, they want the information, they want it practical, they want it useful. That's why it's so much about medicine. When you're still younger, it's not like that. So there's a huge difference between young and old in terms of interests and all these stuff, frankly speaking. So help them get through the day a little bit more easily and began with it.
Q: I think what a family wish from a man, or what a friend wish from a man is not only he is an expert, or whether he is aggression. It is whether he is responsible. So how can you utilize these during the advertising, to promote the company, the culture or the product?
A: Well, the fact is you don't just use something. You don't say, "OK, here is something." You never forget about the product, OK? Let's resist the temptation to think that one of these things can just be taken off from this presentation, put on a beer can label and then just used, right? You'll have to start from the product and the role of the product in the men's life and then see whether any of the stuff is relevant to what you're thinking. Therefore inside is the primary phrase, but it doesn't automatically lead to a successful ad. I know that that seems basic and I don't have an answer to how you just use an inside. It comes from the product.
Q: If you're invited to create a commercial for CEIBS admission to attract the man graduates to apply for CEIBS next year, among your 6 tools, which one would you choose first and why?
A: The answer is obvious. Number 2 - give him tools, let him have a tool. This is a course that understands what success is, what makes success, that it is new style of education that teaches people to integrate what's happening around them in a new way so that they can just not spot opportunities from behind but coming. That's what I would do. And I would spend so much on the production project, and I would have it filmed in Paris, France.
走出别人的战略---恒源祥品牌经营之道
（根据录音整理并翻译，ＧＥ和ＣＥＩＢＳ版权所有。如需转载，必须先与ＣＥＩＢＳ市场及公共关系部取得联系。）
刘瑞旗 [简介]
恒源祥（集团）有限公司董事长、总经理
2003年7月9日
我先问大家，今年或者上一个年度穿过手编毛衣的请举手（两个）。会编毛衣的请举手（一位）。我们开始是一个毛线商店，我们没有其他选择，只能做一个手编毛衣，但现在都没有人穿，也没有人编了。是不是手编毛线档次不够？不是的，大家都知道，在国外手编毛衣卖得很贵。
我是在1987年1月1号到恒源祥商店当总经理的，那时候固定资产大概是五十万。到1992年我们经过资产评估达到102万，五年时间翻了一番。1993年，恒源祥国有商店并入到上海万象集团股份有限公司，作为一个上市公司里面的资产合在一块上市，成为一个全资子公司，那时候的资产扩大评估，因为要凑五千万上市，所以我们评估出来的293万进去了。从那天开始，恒源祥所有的经营利润都要按照全资的概念全部上交，自己失去资本增长和积累的过程。因此我们虽然已经淘到第一桶金，但仍然以每年293万的资产进行经营，把产生的利润全都上交，一直到2000年。2001年，恒源祥这样一个小商店，经过我们努力，把品牌做起来以后，由于国有资产的出让问题，我们就离开恒源祥，对恒源祥进行再收购，花了很大的代价。恒源祥就是通过这样一种经历过来的。
恒源祥凭什么？谈到这个我就记起自己小时候淘第一桶金的经历。记得在我读小学三年级的时候，那年代还是计划经济时代，母亲每个月给我一毛钱，让我去到理发店理发。但当时弄堂里面，也有扬州师傅上门理发，他来推销，他说你九分理不理？因为理发店里可以洗头，在弄堂里不能给你洗头，因为不能带水过来，所以就九分。有了这样一个赚一分钱的机会以后，我就赚了第二笔钱，第二次我是召集了五个小孩子，加我六个，一起跟理发师说八分理不理？他说OK，理了。我那时候就赚到了第一笔钱。这个模式跟恒源祥以后发展有关系。
我们来看一下恒源祥的历史。恒源祥于1927年创立，原来的创立者在洋行里做事，自己赚了一点钱以后，就开了一个恒源祥人造丝毛线商店，最早开在福州路一个弄堂小店，由于他的努力勤奋，资本很快增长，1935年搬到了金陵路。他比较熟悉洋行里面的业务，懂得进出口贸易，所以他的业务很快得到和较大的发展，也因此有了在1936年创办的第一个毛纺工厂--玉民毛纺厂，解放以后改为国毛第七厂，那时候恒源祥已经拥有7个工厂，3个店铺。1956年恒源祥成为上海第一家自发参加公私合营的企业，所有的工厂归入到纺织局毛纺系统。那时候绒线被我们国家列为计划商品，是二类。一类是油盐粮，毛线是二类商品。文化大革命的时候改为大海毛线商店，到1978年的时候才恢复过来，但恒源祥这时候开始慢慢沉睡。我去恒源祥的时候，也对恒源祥的历史、现状进行了不少了解。假设当时我们在这个商店的基础上努力加强商店的经营管理，努力提高商店员工的管理水平，努力改善货源供应，恒源祥今天的结果是什么呢？是灭亡。因为据历史记载，1956年的时候，上海有名有姓的毛线商店超过200家，到今天我们还能记得真正有名有姓的毛线商店没有了。恒源祥如果跟他们一样，今天也不存在了。1998年，我们考虑把“恒源祥”三个字作为商标注册下来。当时对商标没有很深的认识，因为我们国家的商标法是在1982年开始实施的，自己对商标还不是很熟悉。所以我们当时就把它当作一个标识，叫美工画一个东西，到工商局去。工商局搞商标登记的跟我说，你"恒源祥"就是一个很好的拥有社会资源、并且拥有含金量的品牌，所以就把"恒源祥"三个字注册下来当商标。然后是等待时机。到了1991年我们才找到了合作伙伴。为什么有了商标以后很长时间没有找到合作伙伴呢？我们做了很多努力，当时我们找过很多好的企业，大型的国有企业，但因为门不当户不对，没有人愿意跟我们合作；有些大工厂有自己的品牌，怎么可能帮你恒源祥做？我们也做过一些尝试，但合作都不长久。后来我们经过努力，总算找到了一家算是门当户对的工厂--一个村办小企业，就几十个工人，六百个纺锭。记得我第一次去这个工厂时，考察也好，视察也好，他们用村里最好的交通工具手扶拖拉机，上面放个藤椅来接我。合作的时候我们什么都不懂，技术也不行，什么都没有，但我们选择了一个高质量的产品。当时的关键是讲利润分配。我们就口头讲了一句，说“我们现在把这个毛线生产出来，大家共同努力去卖，赚来的利润一人一半”。这个概念一直延续到今天，还是讲赚来的钱一人一半，永远不结帐，你拿了多了你欠我的，我拿的多了我欠你的。当然在这个运行当中会碰上很多阻力，时间关系就不一一列举了。
恒源祥为什么会成功呢？
当时我们的方法很简单，但运行起来有一点难度。一般情况下，当一家毛线工厂经过运行生意好了，就会增加设备，增加资金投入，继续扩大销售。我们没有选择这样的方法。1992年，我们去寻找第二、第三、第四家工厂，找了四个工厂共同生产手编毛线，并且要求每一个工厂按照要求做一个产品。假如说我们总共有四个产品，每个工厂同时要生产四个产品的话，他在备料、生产成本、生产周期、库存商品量等方面都会很大，所以我们每个工厂只生产一个产品。原来每一个工厂进入市场都要派人到全国市场去销售，造成资源的浪费。四个工厂进行合作以后，形成四个工厂专业化的生产，机器设备从年初一做到晚上就做这四个产品；然后我们划分四个区域，把他们的产品进行相互贸易补偿，你给我，我给你，把货合在一起到一个地区去做。这样的成本就会大幅度下降。恒源祥怎么赚钱？我们不是品牌，字号刚刚开始运行。当时我们有四个工厂，假如说每个工厂在市场运行都需要用一千万广告费，市场走就是四千万人民币，但对每一个企业他所得到的回报还是一千万，因为他自己做自己的品牌，现在四个工厂都跟恒源祥进行合作了，他们把这一千万全都交给恒源祥公司，恒源祥用三千万去做广告。但对于单个工厂来说，用了一个三千万的品牌就相当于赚了两千万，虚拟的两千万。我们的利润就这样产生了。所以说关键在于你有没有能力让大家一块跟你做。但到今天如果还按照这个模式做的话，有一点难度，因为我们现在在产品延展过程中碰到一些问题。
接下来我想跟大家分享一下我们在广告和营销上面一些比较独特的案例，因为恒源祥一直在中国创造一些人家不太可能想象到的事情。
恒源祥的成功，有人说是靠广告。没有广告能成功吗？我认为“酒香也怕巷子深，也得吆喝”，但如果认为仅仅做广告能够解决问题的话，中国估计就没有不好的企业，世界上也没有不好的企业。据统计，70％的广告投入都是浪费掉的，我们尽量不要进入到70％浪费的行列中去，否则钱就会白花。1991年产品刚刚出来的时候，销路并不好，因为是恒源祥原来是商店，你的制造商名称写上恒源祥绒线商店有人要吗？消费者认为不是你生产的，质量无法保证。当时我们就做了一个“手脚”，在印刷的时候把商店两个字给“漏掉”了。然后我们就去做广告，可当时没有钱。一个小商店就一点点资金，每年的利润也就是几十万，还不够用的，再说当时对广告管理的也比较严格，不过我们还是咬咬牙去做了。我拿了十万人民币到上海电视台联系广告。十万对恒源祥小商店来说是非常大的钱了，可电视台说十万块钱能做几次广告呀，当时电视广告都是15秒一个单位的，我没有办法，说做5秒一个可以吗？他说不可以，最少15秒；我就跟他们磨，我说这样吧，我在四点的时候播5秒，五点播5秒，八点播5秒。他们认为也可以。我们就说了两遍恒源祥，恒源祥毛线，其他什么都不说。三个五秒加起来有六遍恒源祥，我们就是用这个方法让人们记住恒源祥的品牌，深刻的记忆是大有好处的。当时中国第一次播放电视剧《婉君》，我们也用同样的方法买下一个15秒的广告，我在第一集电视剧结束的时候播5秒，在广告播一分钟的时候播5秒，第二集开始的时候又播5秒，说了六遍恒源祥。后来有人说总共两分钟的广告，人们除了恒源祥，没记住其他的。 我们的广告就这样开始进入市场，并且在中国首创了5秒的标牌广告。1993年，恒源祥到中央电视台打广告，当时我想做6秒，中央电视台没有，谈判没有成功，但是也同意我们15秒连播三遍广告，那是中央台第一次产生连播三遍5秒的电视广告。其实品牌广告的原则很简单，不要太长，广告一长人们就记不住。我们在上海最早做的时候是用了"羊发财"，因为"发羊财"很俗气，就用"羊发财"。这个片子在中央台审片的时候没有通过，因为我们这个片子太简单。当时我们用纸剪了三个字，放在纸板上，摄像机吊在话筒上，摄像机摇动，用土方法做上去的，到了中央台这样的广告片是肯定不行的。把它改掉？可我没有钱做好的广告。第二天又去谈判，我们问"恒源祥羊发财"广告不能播，是不是因为羊是动物不能发财，他们说是。那我们现在改成“发羊财”，应该可以吧。就这么通过了，最后播的时候，第一遍是“发发发”，第二遍是“羊羊羊”，第三遍是“财财财”。有领导觉得还是不好，没有办法，就只用上“恒源祥羊羊羊”。这个播完以后就碰上问题了，中央电视台10月份出了一个通知，将在1994年11月2号对1995年的黄金时段拿出来进行拍卖，他是把一分钟广告分成12个五秒，原来是15秒没有5秒；同时规定任何企业做15秒广告要加收60％的费用，因为要保障他5秒广告的拍卖成功。那一年中央电视台五秒广告的价格甚至超过1994年15秒的价格。后来广告界朋友跟我讲，说我们帮中央台开了一条财路。不过回头来讲，我们当时选5秒广告所得到的效益在以后的市场时间当中得到了充分的证明，其实我们是节省了成本。当时广告的声音打动了老人、小孩子的心。1996年，我们的五秒广告合同结束，之后分季节性，淡季不播。后来收到沈阳气象局的一位家长写来一封信，他问为什么停播这个广告，应该马上恢复，说他们家里有一个2个月的孩子，每天晚上都是伴着“羊羊羊”入睡的，如果看不到广告孩子就天天闹，不睡觉。我们后来就寄了一盘录像带给他，我告诉他去买一台录像机看。这样的案例还有很多。 我们仔细分析一下，中国90％的广告都是产品广告，品牌类的广告很少，几乎没有。产品广告是跟着产品走的。随着产品的成长而成长，随着产品的衰退而衰退，随着产品的死亡而死亡。恒源祥就是从开始扔掉绒线羊毛衫以后慢慢走过来的，所以我们以前的钱没有白扔，没有浪费。我们广告是从这个角度入手的，是这个方法让我们取得成功，但这并不是唯一的方法，也不是最好的方法。问题是怎么用最少的钱达到这个目标。其实我们做广告就是应该突破渠道。
1995年我随中国毛纺代表团到阿根廷访问，突发奇想，想请马拉多纳到中国来踢球。我们全权委托了一个人去谈这件事，到后来就促成马拉多纳1996年7月出访中国的事情。我们的想法是能够争取在比赛结束时让我给马拉多纳颁发奖杯，但他如果不是队长怎么办？那就让他上场，还要成为最佳队员，怎样才能在运动员上场比赛以前，让他的精神状态调整到最好的状态？后来我们策划了三个点子。第一，他可以在入住的锦江宾馆里面买东西不付钱，因为人家送你东西，跟你买东西不付钱概念不一样，心情也会不一样。他一听就很高兴，后来就到商场里面不付钱挑东西。第二，让他做从来没有做过的事情，到后来骑三轮车，从来没有骑过。成都有三轮车，就让他骑三轮车吧，这可是从来没有过的，教练坐在后面，公安局找了四个保镖，很多球迷追随，这个事也开心。第三件事难度比较大。因为经纪人说马拉多纳喜欢女孩子，这在中国肯定不行。后来我们找了十个模特小姐，每人穿一件印着马拉多纳的T恤衫，拿一个足球站成一排。马拉多纳出来以后，我们就说在中国有很多你忠实的球迷，他们都希望你在足球上给他们签字，我们选了一些代表，每签一个字还可以在小姐的脸上吻一下。他很激动，也很开心，明星都这样。第二天的比赛，他上场90分钟，虽然没有进球但是非常卖力，所以我就成了中国唯一一个为马拉多纳发过奖杯的企业家。这是一个笑话，但这也是一个思路，我们也只策划了这么一个事件，当时四川、成都、有线三个电视台同时实况转播，这在成都也是史无前例的。整个活动花了约一百万人民币，促成了一件人们看着不可能的事。
我们说过现在很少有人穿手编毛衣，那恒源祥岂不还是死路一条？不管怎么样，我们既然选择了这个产业，至少要去维持它的生命；其实任何企业都不是在焕发它的青春，都是在维持它的生命，只要生命存在，只要能永续下去就会成功。如果连生命都维持不住，就更不要提什么发展了。所以我们就策划如何去推动这个手编毛线。 我们要发动人们去编毛线。当然不可能让在座的你们去编，你们没这个时间，也没有价值。我们开始细分市场，找老年人，退休以后没什么事情，可以让他们去编。我们开了一个课题，绒线编织与老年痴呆症防治的课程，上海黄埔区一个老年干部大学，他们就开设了一们编织课。我们这个项目以后会不断地深入、推广下去。我们的另一个细分市场是小孩子。小孩子读书那么忙，怎么编？我们又开发了一个课题，叫做绒线编织与少年儿童智力开发的科学研究。手指运动跟智力开发有关系，为什么左撇子都特别聪明？因为他左右开弓。当时我们找了250个学生来参与编织，然后又请了一些专门的心理学家进行研究，课题做了两年，成果还不是很大。在此期间我们还把这个项目报到国家教育部，请教育部立项，教育部批下来以后，就成了我们国家“九五”期间重大的教育科技改革项目。但因为我们后来公司有很多变革，这个项目没能继续做下去，大家有兴趣的话，以后还可以一块做。我们当时就是希望通过教委下文，在大学、中学、小学里面开设编织这门课程，来达到推广编织毛线的目的，这样就不担心没有人编了。我们的方法就是寻找除了饱暖和漂亮之外，编织是不是还有其他功能？有。它是一种手指的运动，是两个手的运动，手、脑、眼并用，对智力开发非常有好处。所以手指运动对人的身体健康也是非常有好处。既然是手指运动，我们可以把它当成运动项目来开展；既然能够当运动项目开展，国家能不能批准作为全运会的项目；既然我们国家能批准，将来有没有可能成为奥运会的项目？有人说搞营销的人就是胡思乱想，但你必须想，有可能做不到，但没想是肯定做不到的。我把以前的体育总局局长伍绍祖请到公司来跟他谈编织，他说我七岁的时候就学编织毛线，在延安编过很多东西，如果不相信马上拿东西来，我们马上拿了毛线、针给他，他也就当场打给我们看。他还说绒线编织是非常好的全民健身项目，如果你们公司有兴趣，可以把它当做建设项目来开展，他会全力支持。那么奥运会项目呢？萨马兰奇见过吗？你们肯定会问。不过我还真的见过。1997年5月22号我见了他，跟他谈我们要经过努力，把绒线编织变成将来的奥运会项目。他没有说什么，只是捧着肚子大笑，他可能在笑我这个人是不是脑子有毛病。其实营销也就这么回事，只要有价值一定会成为人们喜闻乐见，大家愿意去干的事。这样一来，是不是手编毛线是不是又多了一个新的用途？运动器材！这样手编毛线就又能多销一点。我们还搞了一个编织擂台，现在我们35分16秒编织一件毛衣的记录还没有人打破。有谁打破这个记录，就可以拿到一百万奖金。
以上谈的是我们公司在营销方面的一些动作，接下来讲我们另外的一个成功因素，选择一个好的品牌，号的名字，因为有些名字是做不大的。恒源祥的每一个字打开来都有很好的含义，合在一起，恒源祥三个字是没有什么意思的，因此这样的商标具有非常强烈的个性和显著性，不太容易和其他品牌产生雷同，在市场发展上的空间比较大。我们知道松下电器用以前的英文商标向全球进军的时候，到英语国家就不行，因为翻译过来是民族的意思。我们国家就有规定，"国家、民族"这样的字眼是不可以用作商标的，所以你看不到"国家"牌冰箱，这样的注册很难成功，也不可能成为一个全球统一化的商标。所以松下就换成了现在这样一个商标。据说他为这个商标因此整整多花20亿美金。在中国也有很明显的一个品牌案例，熊猫电子，过去是中国电子行业当中的大哥大。但我们去一查询，熊猫商标在中国各种词语当中有122个，都不是他的。最近我们看到联想在更名，单单一个"联想"要去注册不可以，因为它是一个词组。一个商标应该是在成语、词组、词汇，统称等人们生活当中没有的东西，二你经过自己的努力使它变成一个成语、词组、词汇，变成人们生活当中某一个产业，某一个产品，或者变成人们生活中不可缺少的语言，这就是品牌，能做到这一点你就成功了。想把人类共享的文化，或者有部分可以享受的东西，作为商标专用权自己独享是不可以的。 但从另外一方面来讲，恒源祥也是个不好的商标？如果在中国做没问题，但对于老外来说就不是汉字，只是三个图案，他们不懂，除非让他们能通过这个汉字想象出什么，而且要是好的想法。国外最大的宣传片我去过几次，看到最多的就是红高粱，黄土地，穿着破棉袄，他没有把我们浦东，把我们真正祖国大好河山反映出来。所以他们对我们产品的印象还不是很好。中国应该有一个强势的文化，强势的内涵推动，才能把我们的品牌带出去，一个企业是不行的，不是走回来，就是走不回来，一样的结果。为什么这样讲？1997年我们做过一个调查，一个全新的品牌导入美国市场，平均的成本需要7500万美金，仅仅导入。我们现在到美国去的企业，有多少家能够拿出7500万的美金把一个品牌导入进去？如果你是家电、可乐，7500万美金还是进不进去的，何况除了大成本，还要有一个较长的时间。导入以后，还有一个维护成本，这个不知道也不行。第三要提升。世界上专门有机构进行调查，消费者能够记住多少品牌？如果把消费品算作20大类，能记住的品牌平均每一个大类不会超过七个。因此如果导入品牌，你要争取进入前七位，导入以后要看是不是有别人超越你了，超越了你要维护你排在前面的位置，有人超越你你还得继续提升。这个钱不是你企业拥有多少钱决定，导入、维护和提升的成本是多少，是由所在行业的领导者决定的。那按照这个说法，我们企业是不是永远不可能成功了？不，这些是讲的概念，关键是你花多少钱达到这个市场效应。我们说品牌导入美国是7500万美金，有人也许1000万美金同样也可以。你会做广告，我也会做广告，我的广告费比你高就不成功，我的广告费比你低也许我就成功了。我们的利润空间就在这个地方。人们对广告的认可程度是不同的。我们原来在管理上面把广告称作开销，没有把广告看作企业在市场运行当中必不可少的成本。开销可以节省，可以用多一点少一点，钱多得时候多一点，钱少的时候少一点，但广告其实是企业市场运营当中必不可少的成本，在某种意义上比为员工发工资更重要。全世界范围来看，一个企业下一年度为员工工资增长一倍，企业效益增长一倍的可能性有没有？没有。但广告投入增长一倍，企业效益增长一倍的有没有？有。因此，我们认为企业在市场运行当中，不能把广告认为是一种开销，应该是市场运行当中必不可少的成本，成本不是可以减少开支的，只是怎么用最少的钱达到最大的效益。我们公司每年确立的第一个指标是广告投入多少。我们跟人家不一样，因为我们除了品牌什么都没有，因此我们把它看作是我们第一生命。 恒源祥是一个在中国运行的非国际化的商标。如果运用我们目前的管理，目前的人才，目前这样的经营模式，是否可以把一个可能走向国际化的品牌带向国际化呢？不可能。这不仅仅是商标问题，还是我们一个企业的问题。我们公司最近也在谈论这些问题，我们在考虑恒源祥怎样才能做成一个优秀的企业？
我自己认为，一个优秀的企业应该通过三个标准来确定。第一点，要让恒源祥的产权制度明晰，我们现在基本上做到了跟国家没有关系了，但现在恒源祥的产权，或者我们的股权是否能够在市场当中进行自由交割和交换呢？我现在卖1％你敢要吗？不一定敢要。因为你1％没有表决权，只有看到我们公司有一个非常好的发展前景，看他的产权制度在运行上面是否有一个彻底透明的财务，这很关键。如果能够达到这点，任何人都愿意把钱投到你这个公司来，你想把股权卖掉的时候有人接受。恒源祥今天还做不到这一点，现在我说我卖股份，人家要看我的财务报表，我的财务报表不好看。你说一个企业，人家不敢买你的股票，你是优秀企业吗？当然不是。我们计划通过五年时间的努力达到这样一个目标，谁要恒源祥的产权，进行竞标完成就可以成为大股东。 第二是人力资源政策。我们现在人力资源政策不行，那要做到什么程度？要把自己企业所在这个行业这个地位当中最优秀的人才，不通过什么特殊的政策就能够吸纳进来，而不是个体的概念，因为这个人有什么专长，所以我给你特定的政策吸引你到我公司来。不是这个概念，我正常的政策就是最好的政策，就能够把最好的人才吸纳进来。同时还要做到，让最不优秀的人自然地离开你的公司。我们不讲差的，恒源祥没有差的，个个都是好的，是否能够有这样的机制，让变动中的人自然而然地走。 第三个，团队的整体竞争力，是否让人们感觉做什么都可以。我们平常讲这个人不错，做什么像什么，团队也可以这样去衡量。恒源祥现在做这个产业不错，做其他的行不行？应该是行的，因为我们有这样一个团队。任何离开恒源祥的人，他的竞争力最多能维持两年，两年以后肯定和我们不太一样，因为我们这个团队每天都在进步，每天都在发展，离开以后就没有这个感受。我们是搞经营运营模式的，到目前为止，我还没有找到一个比在我们公司里面连续发展更好的员工。所以我对自己的公司还是比较有信心，充满希望。
最后谈一谈我们公司目前的情况。恒源祥从1998年以前做手编毛线，到今天已经品牌进行延展为三大类主要产品，针织、服装、家用纺织品。我们的羊毛衫号称中国第一，袜子一年做一千万双，衬衣一百多万件，我们的产品遍布全中国。我们这种延展是在没有资金投入的情况下进行的，到目前为止是中国品牌延展最成功的一个企业。当然我们还会不断的努力，进一步提升自己。我们经营过程当中用的是虚拟特许经营，恒源祥没有一个工厂和一个商店，所有的商店和工厂都是加盟形式的。在这种条件下，靠什么力量来你的品牌、产品质量、对生产制造、销售点进行控制、管理呢？我们只能慢慢努力，不断地对进行灌输，慢慢来做这方面的工作。这在目前对我们来说是恰到好处的方法。如果有人说恒源祥没有做好，我的理由和狡辩的语言就是没有恰到好处。做什么事情都一样，恰到好处才会有效果，做的太好不切合实际也不行。正如企业改革，不能一步到位，你走在前面不行，走的太慢也不行，我们要找准机会，恰到好处。当时95、96年开战略研讨会，当时恒源祥发展很好，有专家就提出恒源祥要独立，自行运行，那时候讲没有恰到好处，所以发生了96年变成分公司的结果，很痛苦。到我们国家股权转让以后，恰到好处的时间来了，我们也长大成熟了，所以恒源祥的MBO在中国还被专家成为是最成功、最经典、最有价格的案例。
EU-China Relations
(Excerpts from a speech given at CEIBS by Stanley Crossick. Content rights reserved by the speaker and CEIBS. Use of the content must be with the prior approval from CEIBS.)
Stanley Crossick (Biography)
Director, Founding Chairman of the European Policy Centre
Dec. 2, 2002
It's an honour to be with you in Shanghai and to be talking to China's leading business school. I looked through the literature of the school and saw as your main objective: To contribute to the economic development of this country and its business community. Judging by the sudden expansion in Shanghai, China needs all the MBAs it can get.
A business manager's main focus is inevitably going to be managing a particular business or organisation, facing central and microeconomic problems. But a top business manager must also understand the environment within which he or she manages. By environment I mean local, national, regional, global, economic, political, social. All these are, of course, interrelated in today's world. I hope my lecture will help a little in that direction. It's on EU/China relations.
I reckon to spend a few minutes on how I see the basis of the relationship, or certainly how it seems in Brussels. I'll take a look at the relationship as seen across Europe, then look at the culture and try to see into the future.
For convenience sake, let's just talk European. I'm sure you understand that the European Union has around 15 countries. It will soon have 25 countries. It's not technically the whole of Europe, but it's rather easier to talk about Europe than the European Union every time.
Current policy is based on communications of the European Union Commission in Brussels, an executive as of May 2001. It was built on communications of three years earlier. There are three areas at which the relationship has looked: political and human rights dialogues; economic and trade relationships; and Europe-China co-operations.
As you know, the two-way trade between us exceeds 100 billion Euros. China is Europe's third leading trading partner behind the United States and Japan. Europe is China's second largest export market. It is expected this year that China will replace the United States as the leading beneficiary of direct investment money.
Europe has welcomed the acceptance of China to the Global Trade Organisation and has always been a supporter of that membership, although implementation of what that membership entails has thus regressed.
Europe is fully committed to supporting reform and improvisation in this country, both working with the Beijing government but also working across China with no less than 40 co-operation projects, ranging from environment to education to business governments to enterprise reform to financial services. So Europe is trying to help at different levels of society.
There are three priorities for Brussels. First is to support the economic and social reforms. Second is to improve the environment and work towards sustainable development. Thirdly, the area of good government and strengthening of the rule of law. We have bilateral summits, the last of which took place in September of this year, and there are a great deal of exchanges at different ministry and official levels.
Good integration into the international community-and that what it's all about-is not of course just about changing laws and regulations. It involves changing mentalities and requires extreme information and trading effort, which Europe tries to do its best to help China with.
There have been good business relationships from Europe. Obviously it's very important to us. How can a country with more than 1.2 billion people be other than important to us? Historically our relationship with the United States has been the most important, so far, and has dwarfed all other relationships. And it still does economically, politically and from a security standpoint.
But two things are happening. Although economically it is still, by far, the most important trading relationship in the world, it is between two mature markets and growth is therefore limited. Politically, we are growing apart. The tragic events of the 11th of September brought into sharp focus on a trend which was already there. Our American friends and we tend to see the world and its problems rather differently. We also tend to see different countries in different lights.
Much more binds Europe and United States together than divides them, and the relationship will remain critically important. But because as I said, the markets are mature, clearly one day our trade with China may well compete with our trade with the United States. It has a long way to go. Our mutual trade is 100 billion Euros; we have 600 billion Euros with the United States. But because of the mature markets I mentioned, we are in need of other markets and China is potentially the biggest.
Second, while there are still substantial policy differences between China and Europe on some issues, we think more alike than we do with our American friends. For example, policy toward Iraq and terrorism. And generally we tend to see the world in shades of grey rather than in black and white focus, which you get from the United States. So we also see, in the political field, China as a stabilising influence in the region and globally.
Let me leave beside the United States connection and turn directly to the China-Europe relationship. As I said, we can not ignore 1.2 billion people economically or politically. Economically, Europe supports Chinese trade expansion and liberalisation. At the same time, we are obviously worried about the trade deficit we have with China, which is 45 billion Euros and likely to grow. For this reason, we are anxious to see that normal trade barriers are reduced and that no new ones are erected. We hope that China's entry into the WTO will encourage this.
European experience is notably available on how to adopt rules and policies to globalization and how to minimise at the same time the resulting economic effects. Europe is keen to help ease China into the global system. But at the same time, we have some concerns. It is obvious that you need a sound microeconomic policy. We understand that structural changes take time. But we are a little impatient (for) the Chinese government to combat piracy and counterfeiting and to increase respect for intellectual property law, a subject of very great importance in the West and of great, great importance to companies as they develop their opportunities here in China.
And in general, we are concerned about the enforcement of legislation if nothing else. That legislation complies, in theory, with international standards even if in practice it does not. So to us, always, the rule of law is critically important, from an economic and business standpoint as well as a political one. And it is this improved law enforcement and general development of the rule of law that is important for China if it is going to protect and increase its direct investment.
Turning to the political dimension, Europe wants a stable China, along which will influence regional and global stability. Its key objects are to help China achieve a society that is based on rule of law, and keeping this rule of law is central to us. That is what we would like. Because we believe that only an open society will bring long-term stability and economic prosperity. Of course, it's understood that if you bring in structured reforms too quickly or without sufficient care, they can have a destabilising effect. It is for China and its leadership to work. Europe is there to provide support and encouragement; it is not there to dictate what to do and how to do it.
However, as China has chosen to join the World Trade Organisation and accepts the obligations that follow from membership, it has to address a number of issues. For example, the WTO rules require judicial review of administrative action in the economic sphere. Individuals and companies must have recourse of action against, for example, my administration. That is required by the WTO. You will see it will have an effect on your own legal system in other spheres.
In the transition toward a local society, different constituents in society need to be encouraged. The civil society in Europe is very important. The Non-Governmental Organisations, by the way, are trusted in Europe by the people far more than the governments. Again, the EU-China dialogue and co-operation is there to help.
Our political dialogue has broadened and now addresses issues such as international terrorism and the non-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. Separate from that, there are also twice-yearly dialogues specifically on human rights, which allows the discussion of a wide range of issues. There are also a number of co-operative projects. For example, Chinese implementation of United Nations human rights covenants, local democratisation and legal and judicial reform. Europe keeps a vigilant eye on Hong Kong and Macao, but so far is comfortable with the implementation of that "One Country, Two Systems" policy. I just came from Hong Kong, in fact. The success of this unique Hong Kong structure is vitally important to China as well as to Hong Kong. It is important to the international status of China and the ultimate resolution of the Taiwan dispute.
Turning now to this relationship as seen from China, I note this more as an encouragement to you to give your views when we have a discussion afterward. They are perhaps more like hopes; they're not really for me to know more than that. Economically, Europe offers to China a large market, a pool of investment and co-operation in a wide range of fields. I think we also offer patience and understanding. I hope that's seen from China, and a willingness to help in your transition. You may be suspicious that Europe wants to exploit China commercially. We only have to look back at history and you can understand such a concern. But of course trade is not a zero sum game. Both sides can be winners. There is every reason they will be.
The second concern I expect from the Chinese standpoint is that we Europeans tend to regard China too much as a developing country. Europe's research and development investment in China confirms its belief in the quantity and quality of Chinese talent available. China's economic transformation has been due, partly, to foreign technology and management, but the Chinese workforce also plays an extremely important role.
Europe now sees China, particularly since the WTO admission, economically in global terms. The Chinese view should be enhanced by our enlargement from 15 to 25 countries shortly. Politically, we have to look at this internally and externally. Should you be worried about any attempted European interference in your internal affairs? I suggest no. But you have to expect, from time to time, public criticism in the West on issues of human rights treatment, of the Falun Gong, Tibet and maybe Hong Kong and Taiwan. But European governments are likely to remain supportive of Chinese government policies in the absence of serious incidents. On one hand, we are encouraging the move and the transition to modern and democratic society. We are urging a fast approach, yes, but we understand the process has to be controlled and the big debate, of course, is what the control really means. How fast can you change?
Externally, should the enlargement of the EU and NATO worry China? Should European development of a defence and security policy alarm to be a worry? My answer is no. Europe does not see China as a threat. Indeed the only threats we see today come from rogue states and international terrorism. So long as China is helping to defeat these forces in its own interest as well as global interest, I see no problem.
In view of the historically antagonistic Sino-Russian relationship, should China be worried about the quasi-admission of Russia to NATO and the closer relations between Europe and Russia? I answer no again. Because our relations with Russia confirm Europe's willingness to help Russia as it seeks to help China. And Russia, too, must be a responsible member of the international community. We welcome it as such. Europe has no desire to play one country off against another. I know that sometimes statements out of Washington suggest the Americans may think that way from time to time. At least we in Europe have learned that balance of power and divide and rule policies of the 19th and 20th centuries lead to catastrophic results. In Europe we have pooled our sovereignty in the interest of ever-closer co-operation.
Finally, we come to China's old enemy-Japan. Japan and Europe relations are good but unexciting, which I think in Chinese terms is good. If I understand correctly, living in exciting times is a curse. So that makes relations good but unexciting. There are virtually no problems economically and there's very little dialogue between Tokyo and Brussels. Again, I don't see that anything Europe does in its relationship with Japan has any negative impact on China.
You may tell me after I finish this. But then your assessment of the China-Europe relationship as seen from China's perspective is rather more relevant than mine. And I'm more concerned to have you come out with your views then necessarily defending mine.
So much then for the present. Turning to the future. Might my optimistic presentation prove wrong? Of course. What might affect it? In today's fast moving, fast-changing society there are many things: a change in leadership in China or Europe; a change of policies in China or Europe; economic change in China; political destabilisation in China; other unforeseen events. It's hard to see European leadership and European policies changing toward China and introducing a different scenario for China-European relations. But of course, European reaction to events in China could change that. But we hope there will be no events that would change that.
Conversely, we see no sign of any leadership or policy changes coming down from China which would cause concern as to our relationship. But we do recognise there remains the risk of economic failure and political destabilisation. As I said, there's always the unforeseen events, of which there are many more these days than there used to be.
In conclusion, I think China faces not only economic and political uncertainties, that Europe has a deep interest and indeed a deep stake in helping China in a manner, which will produce a stable, prosperous and open country, a China in which the rule of law prevails. Europe has a vested interest in helping China economically and politically, both in China regionally and globally. Europe has much to offer China in this. China is bound to be become the dominant regional power and a global force. We in Europe seek to help build a strong, confident China taking its place as a world power. History tells us that danger does not come from a powerful nation economically successful and politically stable, confidant in its own destiny. Danger comes from nations which are powerful but which lack confidence and which feel threatened.
I conclude with two quotations and one recommendation. Jean Monnet, founder of the European Union, closed his memoirs with a sentence to the effect that the European Community, as it then was, is at a stage on the road to the organised world of tomorrow. By that, he meant that a successful Europe might become a force to help make ours a better world and to secure, in today's language if you like, effective global governance. That sounds very idealistic, but that is what the European Union is all about.
My recommendation is that each one of us, in China and Europe, and all the others in all their spheres, promote exchanges between us, particular among your age group so as to increase our mutual understanding, which in many areas is very lacking on both sides.
The second Jean Monnet quote, also from his memoirs, comes out of his visit to Shanghai in 1933 as a banker. His words of wisdom are how to deal with the Chinese. I quote: "The secret is simple: Act as you speak. See there's never any contradiction between what you say and what you do."
It's a good lesson for all human relations, but, alas, one that is rarely followed.
Investor Relations
(Excerpts from the speech. Content rights reserved by the speaker and CEIBS. Use of the content must be with the prior approval from CEIBS.)
Michael Jacobi (Biography)
CFO of Ciba Specialty Chemicals
Nov. 29, 2002
Good afternoon. I am pleased to be with you. Who here knows Ciba? I would like to very quickly talk a little about Ciba and talk about investor relations. As CFO of our company, I spend one third of my time on investor relations.
Let me give you a piece of advice that we use for investors. I'll tell you: Who is Ciba? What is investor relations? What does it mean, really? Who are our customers? How do we meet them? What is that thing called investor relations? And some investor relations dos and don'ts.
We are Ciba Specialty Chemicals. We produce so-called specialty chemicals. It's something you do not find in shops. You cannot find us. We work primarily on things that change the colour, performance or look and feel of certain products you buy. You will always find us in small ingredients in something bigger. It's like spices in food. We are not spices in food, but ingredients in other products.
These are the segments, the business areas that we are in. I'll give you an example of our products as we go along. Overall, the company has about $5 billion US dollars in sales. We are in Switzerland. That is why we talk about Swiss francs. Our headquarters is in Basel, Switzerland. Our four segments we're in are about the same size, so it is a very balanced portfolio and we have very strong market positions. That's one of the good things when you're talking about investor relations. We are a large company, a billion-dollar industry, and we have very strong segments and leading positions. It's much easier to explain your company and investor relations this way than if you come in and say, "We are a small company and we don't particularly define the market."
What are our products? One is plastic additives. All these core businesses are about $1.5 billion US Dollars in size. They are very large companies that are number one in the market world-wide. They are spread all over the world, obviously also in China. Being a European-based company, for us, the biggest market is the United States. The second biggest is Germany. The third biggest market is China. For us, China is very important in terms of presence. We have a very large presence here. We have a lot of factories, several in Shanghai and Qingdao. It's really a very important market.
What do we produce here? You have plastic, polyethylene. You can't use polyethylene-plastic bags and wrapping-anymore without using additives that stabilise against light. Otherwise it falls apart. In order to stabilise it, we produce these additives for the plastic industry. We produce them here, among others, in Shanghai. It's one of our most recent plants, right here in Pudong. If you want to see the plant, we'd be happy to show you around. Just get in touch with us. It's a very nice plant, definitely an expensive plant.
We also make coating effects. These are very exciting things. Where do you find us? You find us basically on cars. If anyone has a red car. Red cars, they used to turn kind of brownish. The new cars don't anymore and that's because they use something that comes from our company. The red colour comes from us.
You also find this with CDRs. It's an interesting example. CDRs, recordable CDs, if you look from the side, you see some green shade. It's usually silvery or gold, then a green shade. That is a pigment. We make that pigment. We have a modest market share. It's the registration on which the laser burns. It registers the information on the colour, the pigment. The pigment comes from us, primarily sold in Taiwan.
These are typical things we have here. Alessi, typical kitchenware in Europe. These colours all come from us. We make modern paper treatment products, which go into paper production. I see some of you have white paper. The additive that makes the paper look white, two-thirds world-wide comes from us. In water treatment, cleaning water, we are quite strong. In oil trimming-separating the oil and water-the chemicals used in the extraction industry are chemicals we produce. We are not so large, but still quite common in the industry.
Textile chemicals, dyes and special effects for textiles. We are the world's number one producer of chemicals for the textile industry. All the colours come from us. By the way, in the typical business suit, there are 60 chemicals in a suit. Another thing that comes from us is all kinds of special effects for the fashion industry. We have one product, to protect clothes. You can spill beer and food and anything on clothes and it doesn't get dirty. This is a product we produce and sell in the industry. This is, for us, an important thing for you to see us, coming into these industries.
Last but not least is home and personal care. Whiteners for the detergents to clean the wash, or microbial agents. These are products we produce. That gives you an idea of what the company is all about in terms of business.
In terms of profitability, you see it is a company with profitability. Our sales are very much on track. We will reach our $5 billion in US Dollars at year-end, easygoing. And we have very good margins. It's one of the most profitable companies in the industry. At the moment we are probably one of the most successful ones. I say that not because I work at Ciba but because our investors tell us we are one that they regard as a benchmark in the industry. It's a very strong company profit-wise as well.
So that is one of the jobs of investor relations, provide regular information on the company, products, and what they do to, to the financial markets. The second job is when anyone has a question, you have to give an answer. You can't just sound good; you have to know what you're talking about.
You can not go out and struggle. You have to know about our stock; you have to read up. If you don't, they don't call you up again. We monitor the development in the financial investment markets; we know what is going on. That's a task we have to do. Find out where an investor has problems, where there's change. We monitor that. We have to do that very carefully.
So that is getting information. And the other hand, we feed things (send out information). It is not a one way street. You have to listen very much to what happens in the market, what investors want, what they would like to hear, what they think is good, what is not so good. Then you have to find a way to tell them that information. It's not so easy. You have to think how do you tell the audience, your boss, exactly what the people would like to hear. You have to think very carefully how you phrase this stuff.
So that's one way of doing it. And then there are some other things, companies we're monitoring and so on, which in our case is part of investor relations.
Now who are our customers? Our customers are, on one side, financial analysts. They are either part of a bank or part of an investment (company). We distinguish between so called sales-side analysts and buy-side analysts. Sales-side analysts are those who help sell the materials. Reports written on companies are written by sales-side analysts. They are specialised groups of people. They basically follow an industry and write about the companies in this industry.
On the other hand are the buy-side analysts. These are the analysts that help investors compile information (so that they can) make a decision. The large pension funds that invest in shares have people who specialise, on their side, in monitoring investments. These are buy-side analysts. In the end, you have the fund managers, who are the ones who really decide to buy or not to buy.
Then you have individual investors, who want to buy their own shares. These are our customers. We get a lot of them.
Just to give you an idea, our company has about 100,000 shareholders. We're very broadly distributed. Out of that, 99500 are private individuals, who own between one and a lot of shares. But really the big amount in capital is owned by financial institutions. It's something you see a lot in this industry. Big investors are usually institutions like pension funds, investment funds, insurance companies, all these that own shares. They are the prime people we talk to. In our case, (our stock) is distributed all around the world. We can't just look at Switzerland and say, what happens in Switzerland. Less than half our shareholders are Swiss. Twenty-five to 30 per cent are American shareholders, so I happen to go a lot to the United States.
If you ever want to work in investor relations, English is absolutely necessary. There is no other language than English. No matter which country you're in, you'd better be absolutely fluent in English; otherwise you won't have a chance. The technical terms are all English.
How do we have contact? What do we do? These are the typical things you do. First of all you have large-scale events. You invite the investors and invite the analysts for presentations. They happen in Switzerland. (Some particular meetings, for instance,) happen usually at headquarters. Results, you have that two times a year where you present-like the slides you've seen hereabout the company, key events, and so on. You have road shows, these are very exciting. We have, in our case, three regular large trips. We go to a lot of countries in a very short period of time. You go to a lot of cities, and you really meet a lot of investors. Then you have short trips that usually held at the investor's work. You meet the investors for about an hour. You come to the office, for one hour, to talk about the company. You're there for one hour, you make a presentation. That is called the one-on-one. These things we have quite a lot.
Then, at Basel, at our headquarters, we have individuals or groups who come to visit you. We have roughly 150 of these meetings per year. We have things like telephone conferences. I sit in a room and with my hierarchy, I speak into a microphone for 20 minutes and then there are 60 minutes questions and answers afterward. They can ask anything they want. There are usually 100 people listening in. This is the kind of thing you have to watch out for. You have to be very cautious of what you're saying. Because everyone can listen very concentrated. On the telephone you can lose much more. I have to be very cautious what I say, because someone will call me up later and say, "You said this, I wrote it down." In the beginning I was always sweating (and soaking) wet after one hour. By now I know the story, who is asking the questions? It's easy going. Easy going. I can say, "How is the weather in…"
These are the quantities. You get an idea. It depends on size. Road shows, at one per month, you can imagine I'm often on the plane. Telephone conferences. You have a lot of meetings, telephone conferences. You have to be an extrovert to stand through this.
Here's a typical road show schedule, the number of meetings I have per day. Zurich in the afternoon, one meeting. Find my way to the airport. Fly to Milwaukee in the United States, have one meeting. Fly to Toronto for four meetings. Fly to San Francisco, have three meetings. Go back to Switzerland and so on. You probably can imagine it's extremely exciting, huh? You can be sure if you're in investor relations you know all the airports. You know exactly what the airports look like. You have a new sport called airport jogging.
In these meetings, you have a routine. You have two choices. You can do a presentation and question and answers afterward, or you only have questions and answers. When you get to the lower part (the end part of the schedule), you prefer only Q&A. You can't give your own presentation any more. So that's one problem. Another problem is, at some point in time, you start believing your own presentation. So it truly is a tough story. This is really what happened in October. Two weeks ago, in one week I had 13 flights. If you don't like it, don't go into that industry. That's typically what we do. We have usually give to eight meetings a day. We stop saying, "Let's have lunches and dinners," otherwise it's no good. It's really a heavy schedule. 14/15/16 flights in this example. It's really long.
What do we tell in our presentation, our Q&A? It always goes similarly. Company strategy. You have to be very familiar with it, and financial results. One of the prerequisites for working in investor relations is clearly a strong knowledge of accounting. You have to have it. Otherwise don't try. You have to be able to analyse your own company's results. You have to have good knowledge of them. If you just want to talk, you won't survive too long in this. You have to clearly to know accounting and how to interpret numbers clearly (is vital). With Q&As, you just have to be able to answer everything. It's very simple. You have to get it done.
Now what do we want to achieve with all this investor relations? It's not only a marketing job. This is not a public relations exercise to put the company in the best position. That would be a disaster very quickly if people were to do that. This is not an advertising campaign. We are not the marketing department of Ciba. We leave that to corporate communications, which we have as well. They can put out a nice (bulletin).
Investor relations is a clear, transparent picture on company strategy. So you have to, as well, be showing weaknesses; you can not just show the nice things. You have to explain the financial situation of the company. And you have to have an open discussion of problems. You have to be willing as well to commit errors, and be willing as well to share weaknesses. If you do not do this, the investors do not believe you any more. Then you don't have to show up. So you have to be very open, be very clear of what you tell and you have to be frank and show the problems.
The worst thing is when the investors start yelling at you. It happened to me in 1998. The company did not have good results, and they (the investors) came and the people said they want their money back. We launched a bond; the bond dropped very heavily. Shortly afterward, I had to go to a conference. Everybody shouted at me and said, "We want our money back." I said. "Forget it," They were very unhappy the share price did not behave as it should be. Take your time to talk it out. The worst thing you can do is not show up. That is a disaster. You must be able to explain what is going on and explain to people very clearly.
What is required for an investor relations manager in terms of knowledge? A very profound knowledge. It does not necessarily require 20 years in the company, but you have to learn very hard, be very effective and know what to talk about. Accounting, as I said, (is key) and you have to know about the company's industry. It's not so good if someone asks about a competitor and you say," I've never heard about them." They only ask that question once.
Connections - you have very close contact with top management. Our IR manager has an open door to everyone in the company. There is no place he can not go and talk with each and every manager. He travels around in the company very often. I think he's already been in China once or twice already. He sees the problems because he must be able to talk about them. He must see what he presents; otherwise he can't identify. He really has to go around and must know the other (players) in investment community. He really has to know the people very well.
Personal characteristics of investor relations manager: Very, very honest. You can not be a key person who sneaks off. You have to be an extrovert. Accessible. If not, people won't call you. Good presentation skills. You can't be someone who says, "I don't know." You have to be there, be precise, and bring the message across. (There's) a lot of need (for) real training on presentation, how to do this. If you can sell something bad, you can sell good, too. If the results are bad and presentation are bad, then goodnight.
Let me give you an example, fortunately not from our company. One of our competitors in one of the conference calls they had with investors, everything went reasonably well. At the end, one of the people said, "Thank you very much. It was nice to have you here. Now we'll close the conference call." And then he forgot to switch off the phone. And then he said to one of his people, "Thank God that is over; now we can go back to work." Everybody knew. It was an absolute disaster. I know two companies where that happened. Watch out for the microphone.
At Ciba, this is not a one way street of information. We have to hear of the trends of our competitors, what happens in the industry. Investors tell you, "We heard from this company that they do that; what do you think about this?" And I say, "Interesting. Very interesting, challenging." You write it down immediately. And then off we go, because we have the best customer intelligence. We get a lot of information on our competition. They don't have everything.
We hear about companies, what's going on in the investment community, which place has problems. You find out very quickly. When you visit the investor, the people in the bank, everyone is very (aware) of what is going on. (You learn) what investors think of Ciba.
You study: What do they think? What's an example of how people look at us? What is the sentiment? How many recommend to buy our shares, recommend to hold, recommend to sell the shares? Which, by the way, we don't like too much. It's a pattern you have to monitor carefully. Why would they recommend to buy the share? Because it's cheap, which is not our case. Or because it's a sound company, which is more the evaluation of the financial community. It's a very big level picture, but you have to look at it. This is typically an outcome; you have all kinds of comments.
Something we hear lots of comments on, so it's worth mentioning: We receive a lot of focus on cash flow from the investment community. It's something that is very important now. (Of all the things we) look at in management concepts, cash flow is one of the most important ones. We do that nicely; that's why I can say it's important. We as well see the benefit in share price, the benefit of concentrating clearly on cash flow as one of the key drivers. (Investors) look at the portfolio, look at cash generation. These are typical comments you get about the company. It's a very important statement now, after the IT bubble has burst, the telecom bubble has burst. World-wide, you see investors concentrating on cash flow, a strong balance sheet, sound financing. It's very important.
In closing, I asked our IR manager what points he would bring along. He said: Accountability. It's an integral part of the top management job, that you are there. You're honest between the people at top management. It's very important to people in IR. You talk to management and you have to have their respect. Reliability is very important, so there are no surprises when you come out, there are no disasters building. That means good financial monitoring systems within the company, good processes that are transparent. And trust. You only can be successful if you are honest. You can say yes, that is not going well. Yes, this is going well. And you must have confidence, in knowing what you can talk about.
戴尔供应链之解说
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方国健 [简介]
戴尔计算机公司亚太地区国际采购管理部前任总经理
2002年11月25日
各位中欧国际工商学院的朋友们、学长、教授，以及参加贝塔斯曼活动的朋友们，大家晚上好！
我现在是麦实管理顾问公司总裁，经营创投基金，或者称为风险基金管理公司。在这之前我在戴尔计算机服务了十一年，把戴尔电脑引进到台湾，成立了被国际采购组织通称的IPO(International Procurement Office)，后来统称为亚太供应管理公司，当中有11年的时间。我一直认为自己很幸运也很荣幸，目睹了戴尔电脑11年非常成功的发展。我去年年底离开以后，有很多朋友鼓励我，你是戴尔第一位华籍高级员工，亲眼目睹了这么成功的经历，你有责任把你的经验分享给华人，所以我鼓起勇气写了一本书，就是《海阔天空》。这本书今年3月在台湾出版，今年10月由中国财政经济出版社在大陆出版。原本来中国大陆的意义是推广活动，但是我更愿意把它当作经验的分享，所以安排几个大学的演讲，并因为听众群的不一样，我将针对不同的主题进行发挥。今天在座的大部分都是中欧国际工商学院的学院，以商业研究为主，所以我会着重戴尔电脑成功的经验还有戴尔的管理。
戴尔电脑的成功
我一向有一个很深刻的感觉，公司的成功最主要的是公司的文化，围绕它周围的就是各种组织管理、策略的运用、执行面，所以如果要谈到戴尔电脑的成功，我们多多少少要强调一些企业文化，有哪些大家不容易看到的地方。首先我简单介绍一下戴尔公司。
迈克尔戴尔于1984年在大学宿舍里创立戴尔公司
去年的资料显示戴尔电脑在2001年第一季度正式超过康柏电脑，成为全球最大的电脑公司，去年9月份由于惠普跟康柏合并，戴尔暂时退回第二的位置。无论是分析师的立场还是个人的立场，我都有相当大的信心，再夺回宝座只是时间的问题，最多三个季度，最快下个季度也许会看到这个结果。IT界有很多好事之徒，去年9月份HP宣布购并康柏的时候，网络上就传来一幅画面很有意思。因为经过长期的竞争，康柏被合并以后变成一个消灭模式，康柏的名字从此以后就不见了，也等于是戴尔亲手把康柏埋进去了。当时我还在戴尔，看到这个画面以后，也不禁会心一笑。
戴尔也是全球唯一的直销公司
有些公司最近几年都在模仿或者效仿直销的模式，但是多多少少都遇到很多问题，戴尔是唯一最成功的直销公司。到去年年底为止已经有31个季度维持超过业界平均值成长。在IT界平均成长率达到16-17％的时候，戴尔的成长是在30-40％之间。某些公司偶尔会有些明星产品的出现，有一些特别优秀的表现，但是能否维持8年多持续成长的成功，就不一定了。这也就验证了中国的一句话，"路遥知马力"。
戴尔非常重视客户满意程度，很强烈的注重指标 1999年2月获选首度美国最受尊崇的公司，还有全球最受尊崇的公司。这个评比不光是它的业绩和股价，最主要的是社会大众对它的看法，还有员工对它的满意程度。这个评比在戴尔内部被当作一个很重要的荣誉，表示我们真正是一个成功的公司，不单单是一个经营良好的公司。2000年5月被选为Harris Poll美国品牌印象调查之前十名。前四名为Sony、GM、GE、Ford。这些都是每天接触的普通大众，所有人都看得到的产品，IT产业要排到那么高的位置比较不容易，但戴尔能够领先所有包括IBM、HP在内IT厂商，得到第五名。
美国一些基金经理人对戴尔的评价很高，他们认为在过去两年极为恶劣的环境底下，戴尔能够展现惊人的韧性。
成功的原因
我个人喜欢把它分为两大类：一个是因为直销模式所带来的一些先天体制上的优点，别人很难学或者学不会。第一点它免除了中间经销商的利润，这一点很简单，不用大脑也可以想得清楚，因为所有的产品都直接卖到用户手上。第二，也是因为直销，所以它不通过任何中间经销商来卖，所以所有流进来的订单都是真实需求而不是预估，不会因为预估造成风险。我们通常看到每年1月份，经过圣诞节的销售以后，许多厂商在渠道里多余的存货都退回来了，因此而头痛，因为库存需要调整。戴尔没有这个烦恼，因为它的产品是零库存，每一台都直接送到用户手上了。第三，计算机的一些组件长期下来都是走低的，所以在零库存的时候，任何时间卖的产品都反映你当时的成本，如果你卖的是两个月以前的产品，一定有跌价损失，但戴尔没有任何跌价损失。第四，也因为是直销，所以掌握到的市场偏好是直接的，对产品的走向都能及时反应到设计部门还有策划部门。第五，产品要推出到市面上，通常要有一个收集资料的阶段，一般的公司要三到五个月才能收到品质的资料，回馈到产品的设计部去调整产品。戴尔每一台机器卖的时候都有客户资料存盘，所以在很短的时间内就可以收集到正确而及时的品质资料，回馈至生产线去作细部改善工作，因此任一新机种都可以在最短的时间内达到品质优化的境界。第六，这几年有很多竞争者在模仿直销模式。竞争者的模仿是对你最高的一个推崇，因为连你的竞争者都要走你的路，客户看在眼里就很明显了，戴尔是直销模式的开山之祖，他是最好的。所以当很多竞争者在模仿我们的时候，有很多客户也转向了戴尔。也因为Internet的风行，Internet没有时差没有距离，是最有力的直销工具，网络可以使直销模式表现的淋漓尽致，对直销来讲如虎添翼。
我刚才讲的是因为直销模式引申出来的优势，也就是先天的体质优势，别人不能模仿或者很难模仿的地方。
接下来讲别人不能模仿或者很难模仿的地方，那就是它的经营管理。
接下来讲，那就是它的经营管理，也就是后天的营养与锻炼。
迈克尔.戴尔19岁创业，现在已经37岁了，能够稳当当地坐在CEO的位置那么长的时间没有被浪潮冲倒，这是不简单的事情。大家看到业界很多明显的例子，创业容易守业不易，很多人创业时很辉煌，但是随着公司的成长因不能逐渐地跟上公司发展的脚步而退出舞台。像苹果计算机的创始人没几年被董事会请出去了，因为他没办法把公司带到往上经营的路线上，所以给董事会踢了出去。康柏计算机的创始人之一也是在1992年被董事会请出去的。戴尔为什么没有被踢出去？经我观察，他很懂得善用有经验的人。就好比一位年轻的君王，左右一定要有宰相，这些几乎到了退休的年龄的宰相被他找来，辅佐他的事业。94年有一位原本是在摩托罗拉里主导六希格玛的领导人，被戴尔延揽进公司，他把这个观念带到戴尔来，成为戴尔很大的助力。他懂得运用心理战略，他所发布的所有对内对外的命令通常都用OCEO（戴尔的一个管理委员会）的名义发，让大家了解他是多么的专业，不是独裁，不是他一个人在领导这个公司，而是OCEO在领导这个公司。实质上我们也注意到了，他的这些策略拟定以及在公司管理方面也都是深思熟虑的，从95年到现在很少看到他犯策略上的错误。他自己写了一本书，里面也叙述了几个小故事，怎么样不犯第二次的错误，所有的错误都能深刻地吸取其中的含义、经验、教训，转化为未来成长的动力。
92年的时候486电脑刚刚开始风行，很多人认为从这时候开始PC要迅速进入家用市场，因为PC的销售量大量提升，PC的价格大幅度下降。人们买PC的习惯当然是到大卖场去买，看看型号、看看产品，左比右比才会把产品带到家去，这是一般消费者的采购方法，这跟直销市场是格格不入的，戴尔不在店面卖、不在卖场卖，一定不能有所斩获。当然戴尔也动摇了，于是就有了当时的三家渠道，可是只不过几个月就发现财务报表不对了，原来获利情况都还很稳定，但是进入了间接销售的市场反而把利润拉下来了，我们的常年顾问就给我们做了一些企业诊断，结论是你们所有的模式统统是按照直销模式来设计的，所以你的渠道销售不会好。这以后戴尔毅然决然坚持直销，从那时开始一直坚持到今天，从此不再摇摆了。一朝被蛇咬、十年怕井绳。
现在戴尔的各项产品线在市场上不是第一也是第二。台湾笔记本计算机的生产、制造是执世界牛耳的，高达60-70％以上的产品都是台湾设计制造的，其中每4台就有1台就挂着戴尔的品牌行销全球。今天有这么一个辉煌的成绩，但是当初却有一个相当戏剧化的转折过程。因为1993年的时候戴尔曾经完全退出笔记本计算机市场。当时台北采购处刚成立了一年多，人员很少，6-7人左右，美国的采购部也非常积极。那时候毛毛躁躁，非常急功近利，知道台湾486计算机兴盛，知道台湾笔记本厂商进展神速，所以到处去做SOURCING的工作，同一个时间四个不同产品、四个不同厂商，他们看着都爱，所以在同一个时间与四个厂商都订下采购合约。以今天戴尔电脑严谨的工程要求来讲那是不可能的事情，一定会产生很大的问题，但是当时我们没有那么警觉。还好来了一位新的副总裁，他是从苹果电脑加入戴尔的，苹果电脑一直对工程的要求非常严格、严谨，以他的标准来看，这简直是自讨苦吃。所以我们对外宣布说要重整旗鼓重新再来。当时华尔街对戴尔的表现非常压抑，他说笔记本电脑是一个新的潮流，是未来产品的主轴，戴尔这么贸然地退出这个市场，以后还进得来吗？当时戴尔的股价在一个星期内由40元跌到15元钱，华尔街是非常残酷的。但是经过九个月个时间后我们重新推出一个新的产品，从此以后扶摇直上，因为这个教训，戴尔发展了一套过程管理。这对公司来讲尤其是对采购处来讲是一个深刻的教训，但我们从教训里学到要怎么样把工作做得更严谨。
1998年9月21日台湾发生了一次大地震，大地震当然不是戴尔的错，但戴尔的确在其中学到了一些经验，无论是人为因素还是组织管理、经营方面，戴尔在里面还是可以学到一些经验。921大地震发生以后，全球的IT产业都很紧张，因为有很多IT产业使用的配件都是由台湾的台积电和联电这两家大厂生产制造的。一发生大地震，在生产过程中的芯片一部分受到损失，一段时间以后产能就开始出现出现问题。所以我们成立了一个小组，开始做调查，调查影响到我们的生产几个星期之后会发生，发生的程度会有多高，材料短缺的情况会怎么样。这个小组后来就成了一个常设组织，如果对于某个产品，短缺的材料有可能在任何情况下造成生产不顺或者生产材料断线的，他都要建议给采购部，增加一个供货商的来源。从这一点可以看出，无论是大是小，凡是可以影响到公司营运顺畅的事，都会拿来作为一个教训，都会深刻地反映这些从里面学来的经验。
各位生活在海峡这一岸，可能对那一岸的厂商名字不是很了解，在那一岸所有跟戴尔做生意的厂商统统都是最好的厂商，比如说微创、广达电脑、人宝电脑、台达电子、光宝电子、飞利浦。戴尔电脑对伙伴关系非常重视，不会每年报价，一看哪边便宜就哪边买，他非常注重伙伴的关系，也因为如此跟伙伴之间都是双赢的关系。戴尔虽然要求非常严谨，但是不会严苛。
对客户满意程度特别重视。这里有一个表可供各位参考。
所谓TBR，是专业的IT产业采购承办人员，就是大公司里面负责IT产品的采购人员，他对使用品牌的一种印象调查。横轴代表所采购产品品质程度、质量水准，纵轴是它对使用品牌的忠诚度以及满意度。右上角代表品质又好，使用者也对戴尔非常的忠诚，不会任意改变采购对象；最下端是品质不理想，客户也是游移不定，随时会转换。针对这张表我作一个简单的结论，戴尔极端重视产品品质以及客户忠诚度。到什么程度呢？我举一个例子，大家可以举一反三。 戴尔里面有一个副总裁，他的作用就是不断设想各种可能的方案，怎么样去抓住客户的心，怎么样让客户一粘上就跑不掉。戴尔也增加一些技术，一旦采购我们的产品就是互相绑在一起跑不掉了。一般客户都了解，你要买50台电脑，30台要怎么配备，20台要怎么配备，我们完全照你的要求做，你要什么样的软件，我们帮你做好，甚至你的财产标签我们帮你贴好。所以公司里负责IT产品的人员只要登记好数量以及财产编号，直接发给员工用就可以了。已经做到那么细的程度，换句话说，已经把客户宠坏了，客户也就跑不掉了。这在平常也许我们不会想到那么深，但是戴尔这么大的公司的确可以做到这么细的地方。
2000年年中，戴尔推出了一款新的笔记本计算机，那款是适合企业用户的，我刚才说过在最短的时间内可以收集到足够的品质资料，这就是一个验证。产品卖出去以后，来自加州的一个大学反映，我们买了一部分这个机种，发现它有问题。因为大学里面的用户在课堂和办公室里进进出出，机盖的关合很频繁，他说这本计算机开合几次以后就撑不住了，这个面板就会倒下去。我们的工程部就做了一些分析，发现铰炼是有技术的问题，再经过科学的计算预估大概有30％要回收。可是在美国一旦不良，一台台退回来，运费、人工，加上零件的成本，每一件产品的回收成本要200-300美金。但这时候戴尔的直销优势又看出来了，因为是直销，我们马上查出来过去所卖的对象都在哪里，哪一个客户买多少台，在资料里都非常清楚。我们组织了一个小组，让他们巡回服务一遍，帮所有买这个机种的客户更换零件。这样一趟服务下来，达到几个效果：第一，集中服务，成本大幅度降低，你可以用最低的成本把这些笔记本计算机修好，第二，客户非常满意，他说戴尔能够那么贴心地帮我们维修这些计算机，对戴尔的满意程度大幅度提升。第三，OEM制造商也非常高兴。如果我们要等OEM制造商一台台回来换，他们要负担的成本是非常高的，我们主动出击帮他们修好，在成本方面都控制得非常低。
对于海尔集团的张瑞敏先生我非常有兴趣。重视品质的公司才能生存，他亲手砸碎76台电冰箱的经典案例是海尔迈向成功的第一步。他使海尔所有员工学会了品质第一、品质至上的观念。我个人认为这可以说是中西典范的相互辉映?
重视均衡地成长。它不是盲目地追求利润，除了利润以外同时要求三个东西。戴尔的季报表里总会出现金三角，一个是流动比率是多少、成长率是多少，你的获利能力有多少，这三个极度要求均衡，绝对不能失衡掉。曾经有一次印象我非常深刻，欧洲的一个公司毛利率将近30％，结果过了一个礼拜，OCEO就发出一个通知，说我们要检讨这件事情。因为你有30％的获利率存在，表示你这里的定价不够精准、积极，在赚取高额的利润的同时也失掉了一些业务的机会。还有Self-funding，这一点外界的人可能不大了解，这是在戴尔内被称为最甜美的一块。刚才我提过产品零库存，产品一出厂就直接到客户手上，客户付款给戴尔的时间是45天，戴尔付给零售厂商也是45天，这边很短的时间就出去了，没有什么营运资金的积压，他的资金周转时间大概4-5天。很多企业在成长的过程当中需要增加营运资金来应付他的周转，但是戴尔就不大需要，更妙的是，除了这80-85％是企业用途，另外15-20％之间是end user，他们的采购是通过Internet的，换句话说他们采购的同时信用卡已经刷了，戴尔卖出产品的同时已经收到付款了，之后戴尔再付给零件商，所以这15％是收到以后再付，这在全球企业当中很难找到这样一种企业模式。
我个人判断，95年以前戴尔也是一个没有什么特别的地方的电脑公司，除了营运的地方比较特殊，制定策略比较精准以外也没有什么特别的地方，但是95年有了一个分水岭。95年大家都开始意识到Internet会对人类的生活甚至对相关产品产生很大的影响，因为上网的人多了，所以跟Internet有关的东西需求量都会增加，但是这一块门槛是比较低的，是竞争非常激烈的一块领域；但同时Internet风行以后，会出现一些ISP、IDC、ASP，为了要应付Internet整体会成长一块，这一块就是竞争门槛比较高的企业产品。1995年戴尔定好这个策略以后一直没有优先发展低价电脑，戴尔选择了门槛高而获利较佳的企业产品，在这一块很快就占领了全美第一全球第二的地位。在长期竞争很激烈的市场里面，也许在某些产品里面增长率比较低，但是门槛比较高这一块增长率一定是很高的。
大家知道在卖场卖有什么效果。卖场卖是直接面对消费者，但是这些采购行为也有一部分是冲动性地采购、冲动性地购买，看着喜欢就买回家。在美国，对消费者的保护是没有条件的，如果这个产品用着不满意在一定的时间内退回来，是100％无条件退货的。在市场上零售的产品有很高的退货率，这个退货回来的产品依据法律是不能重新包装当作新品来卖的，要当作次级品在很大的折扣下来卖，这是很大的损失。戴尔避开了这一块。另外，在卖场是卖给很多没有经验的使用者，他们买回家以后问题一大堆，会不停地打电话来问，戴尔避开了大卖场也就避开了没有经验的使用者。使用网络下订单的这种人，要求的档次比较高，所以卖出去的产品通常是比较稳定的，也避开了无理退还的动作，所以在这方面产生了一些过滤的机制。我们平常会看到戴尔在打价格战争，戴尔在不断地争取市场，但是在幕后到底有哪些这样的成功，是特别值得我们大家去探讨的。 彻底地运用网络可以带来一个很重要的商机，当然最有名的就是电子商务。从1996年下半年开始戴尔把产品在网络上销售，但并不是以电子商务为主，最主要一块是专属网站，就是采购人员或者经理人员、IT人员可以通过专属网站直接看到他跟戴尔之间的合约关系、采购关系、定价，还有多少台等等情况，这些都可以查的到，完全是自动化的一种互动。最终成长率已经达到60％，这是一个没有时差，没有距离的一种互动，所有的资料都能做最及时最精确的统计，没有经过任何人工统计，你要怎么样分类、怎么样排序都可以达到最精确，可以达到很多增长率。我们常说如果达到90％甚至达到95％的话，戴尔就已经有了金刚不坏之身了，最大幅度地节省人工，效率和制度性的作用都发挥到最高极限了。1997年3月的一个晚上戴尔的交易金额达到100万美金，到今天为止每一天的营业额达到6500万美金。6500万美金相当于5亿人民币，5亿人民币相当于一个中型企业每年的营业额。
谈到组织文化方面，据我个人的观察，戴尔的高阶领导精英应该是通才，常常会调动，中间的领导干部比较少调动，每个人把自己的工作做好就可以了，高阶经常会轮调，轮调就会产生一些动力。我个人在戴尔计算机工作11年，我的老板换了12任，有9个不同的人当了我12任的老板，这之间的互动是相当频密的。我们有一位从苹果计算机加入戴尔的笔记本计算机事业部副总，两年以后就调到日本去当日本分公司总经理去了，日本分公司总经理跟产品设计完全没有关系，他要做市场、销售、策略等等，两年之后又回到美国总公司担任采购副总裁，那个工作担任了一年半又调回一个新的产品线，他担任事业部的首长，现在他又回到笔记本电脑，绕了一大圈，在九年之内轮调了不同的工作职务，可以说他已经是一个种子成员，因为他见多识广，经历过很多以后，最高阶对他的能力都已经相当肯定。
戴尔也跟GE一样，确实执行了一个严格的考核制度。这是我个人认为一向比较痛苦的地方，我心比较软一点，每一年要挑出10％的职员，要给他们比较严厉的要求，GE跟戴尔是很严格地执行这一项考核的。这从某个层面来看是有点冷血，但是从另外一个角度是赏罚分明，他对前十名给予的奖赏非常优厚，但是对最低的十名也要求地很严谨。很多成功的企业里面都不允许和稀泥、打混仗，这也是戴尔能够成长到这么高的原因之一。
从组织调动里面我发现了一些效果。第一是预防组织老化，促进了上下沟通。同一批人互相的了解如果很深，自然就减低了他们的互动，可是如果换一个新老板来，他对这一批部署不了解，很急切地要了解他们，开会的次数，甚至一对一沟通的次数就会很多。新上来的主管也会想，我以前管那个产品线，现在管这个产品线，对我来讲是很陌生的，我要赶快学习，学会新产品里面有哪些不了解的地方。既然每个人能在高阶当中轮调，他自然而然有一种荣誉心，他要做得比上届更好，所以每一个新官上来都会有一个变动，要把过去精华的部分留下来，因为没有包袱，他要把不好的地方马上改掉。在高度成长的公司里面，不允许陈腐化，因为陈腐化导致竞争力降低，就没有那种冲劲了。
迈克尔戴尔个人的特质是公司成功的重要因素之一。他常常在网络上东逛西逛，看到什么比较新鲜的产品或者广告做得很好的公司，就发一些资料给我们，要我们去查，结果就浪费很多时间，后来我们都说这些都跟我们门不当户不对，产品跟我们也不相关，我们有必要花那么多时间在这上面吗？有一天我跟他讲这个事，他说我们已经在巅峰，我们不见得要跳到悬崖底下去，但是我们要经常看一看悬崖底下有什么东西。这一点跟张瑞敏先生提出的一样，"永远战战兢兢、永远如履薄冰。"东西呼应。
供应链管理
要谈所谓供应链管理我们不得不稍微理顺一下过去国际大厂在亚洲区甚至在台湾采购的一些演化过程。因为我自己在外商里面带了23年，可以讲经历过好几个年代的演化。70-80年代在台湾的主要生产厂商大多是外商投资，象飞利浦，生产电阻、电容、简单的电晶体，慢慢的开始有一些台商出现，他们大部分人在外商里学了一些经验、技术，自己出来创业，当时没有什么所谓的工程人员。当时我在RCA的采购部，对台湾的采购大部分都是按图施工，没有什么太高深的能力，那时候的采购可以说在品质、价格、交期这三项上。90年代台湾的产业已经升级转型了，进入这一阶段就是成品的提供，不光是零件的提供，这些OEM/ODM扮演的角色更加深化，包括研发能力、制造能力、财务能力，甚至远到国外制作发货仓库，这已经变成被选择的条件之一。2000年以后全球化的趋势越来越明显，也可以讲正式进入所谓的价值链分工。戴尔的工作不再是产品的设计和制造，而是市场，他去研究新的产品应该长什么样子，他把新产品定义好以后，后面的阶段几乎都由上游的合作厂商来做。他们除了做前面讲的这些研发、制造以外，又增加了很多价值链分工的工具，比如说全球布局，甚至慢慢多了一项，逐水草而居。这些国际大厂因为讯息流通非常快速、非常方便，所以国际大厂不光处于被动由厂商来主导，而是主动要求厂商，你的厂应该设到苏州，你的厂应该设到张江，你的厂应该设到昆山，因为那里比较适合整个供应链的运作，他们非常了解在大陆设厂、在制造业为主国家设厂的大致环境，所以在设厂地点方面也配合客户的要求，所以在前年开始就发现了很多大厂包括戴尔在内开始主导台商到大陆来设厂的脚步快慢以及地点选择。 这是广义的供应链管理，在大型外商的采购策略里面可以大致上这么说。谈到供应链管理，像戴尔的IPO就是亚太区供应链管理分公司，实际上它执行的动作并不是订单大小、订单流程、订单交期怎么排，这些过程事实上由于电子商务的快速、方便，根本跟距离没有关系了。全球有六个厂，可以自己直接沟通，在电子商务上面下订单、跟催、调整，这些都不需要当地IPO的服务了，IPO的真正工作内容反而在这方面，广义的供应链管理。
再一个是在制造方面的严谨程度。
你不光提供材料生产，还要负责后面的，所以你做的生意越大，你的运转资金就变得更高。很多公司都在往上推，当然这不是压榨厂商，因为往上移的话通常效率会更高。财务运转能力变成合格供应商的一个必备条件之一。
戴尔通常不希望供应厂商只做我一家生意，通常我们开个玩笑说，如果这个女孩子只有一个人在追，她可能条件不见得很好，如果追她的男朋友很多，可能她的条件很好，戴尔也一样，戴尔认为我们的客户厂商如果只做戴尔一家，我们觉得他的眼界不够宽，他不见得经常跟市场能够保持很密切的联系，你同时做戴尔也做HP、苹果、IBM表示你对未来的把握很好，这样的厂商反而是戴尔愿意合作的对象。
对于合作厂商，迈克尔戴尔每年会跟他们进行一次很深的交谈，了解整个公司的动态，了解整个公司的经营管理理念，以及对未来的看法。这些都是供应链管理的部分。供应链管理绝对不是狭义的字面上所谓的只是物流、订单这些，广义的供应链管理真正落实在IPO上的还是很多的。
我91年进入戴尔，早期我的观念没有那么深刻，也没有那么成熟，我带了一批美国的工程师来台湾参观工厂、选择工厂，有一天我得到一个很深刻的印象，这也是一个很值得谈的故事。我们去参观了一家的制造商，因为这个制造商的总经理刚好跟我是交通大学同届毕业的，住的同一个宿舍，大学时候很熟，他的业务副总又是我的同班同学，所以上上下下都比较熟悉，所以讲话就比较直接，不必拐弯抹角，参观完以后我们公司的一个工程师给他们提出很多意见和看法，基本上的看法就是，这个公司有很多需要改进的地方。但是在开会前的几分钟的空档，厂商的副总跟我们说，你们公司这么挑剔有必要吗，我们公司每个月在美国卖六万台，客户评价非常好，现在以OEM的身份进来，你们提出很多很高的要求，这样徒然增加我们的成本而已，你们觉得有必要吗？我的立场也是很接近他的，我说对啊，他们明明做的出来，为什么要用我们的方法做呢，这样的话不是徒然增加他们的成本吗？我跟我的同事讲，他跟我说，你们公司就好比一个中国餐厅，我进到中国餐厅里面点了一个菜上来，菜非常可口，宾主尽欢，但是我进入厨房以后觉得不大对劲，菜做得好是看厨师，他觉得这个菜味道对了就拿上来，如果今天挨老板骂了会影响到他的情绪，这也会影响到这道菜。我现在要的不是中国餐厅而是麦当劳，麦当劳的每一片汉堡肉厚度、重量都是一定的，薯条炸几分几秒钟也是一定的，都是有一个工作标准存在，不一定要大师傅，一个服务生两天就上手，可以做出一模一样的汉堡来，全球生产一万个汉堡都是一样的品质。但是今天这个做法，我们给你一个订单，然后扩充生产线，生产出来的东西能不能跟第一个线做出的一样，所以品质控制就是一大问题。他这个比喻我觉得很恰当，而且很深刻，听完以后我大为心服，我的同学也摇头赞赏。那时候国际采购组才六个人，但从此以后我在扩展的过程当中永远把品控人员放在第一位，品控人员在国际采购里面的配备超过一半。尤其在这个社会上，任何一个退货，1%-2％的退货都可以，3％的退货就可能会让公司倒闭。
我常常把海尔跟戴尔进行对比。两个公司都是1984年开始，两个公司都在高速成长，都成为业界的典范。两位老总都没有很高的学历，迈克尔.戴尔是大学一年级，张瑞敏先生也是后来很多学校才赠予他很多荣誉学位的。
刚才讲的是广义供应链管理的第一步，怎么样去挑选我们的厂商。下一步就是我们很重视的共同成长了。一个厂商被选择好，他并不是从此就一劳永逸，安然地做我们的生意了，要不断地精进。戴尔要不断地成长、要不断地进步，供应商也是一样要不断进步。我们有一个执行层面的团队，针对供应商的对口单位，来评估你这一季的表现，哪些是好的，哪些是不好的，同样是做芯片，三个厂商里面排名第几。还有就是老板跟老板之间的对话，谈公司的策略、未来合作的方向，这些通常都是一年至少一次。 70年代时候日商在台湾有活动，但最大的印象就是日商通常留一手，有些东西不愿意教你。戴尔完全不一样，戴尔是倾囊相授，通常我们有好的东西都毫不吝啬地传授给供应商。有一次在IPO的研讨会上，很多人认为跟大厂做生意是食之无味，弃之可惜，因为被压缩的很紧。像某些主机板生产厂商，自己有渠道销售，同时也是戴尔的OEM,我给他们的看法是，你千万不要认为食之无味、弃之可惜，因为你跟这些国际大厂的常年往来，就会像一个家庭医生一样，不断地帮你改善体质，不断地帮你完善，千万不要低估了大型OEM带来的一些价值。
我刚刚谈到了，戴尔特别重视制造引导这一块，但是研发与设计我也要谈一谈。以前在设计方面，你只要把产品设计好出来，一般来讲不会太挑剔设计的内涵、设计本身的品质，但是随着这几年来的演化、演进，戴尔这个大厂对于OEM厂商的要求慢慢深化，DFx，x就是一个变数值，可以代表M、Q、C、S。首先要求你这个产品的制造性是很好的，不要搞了半天搞不出来，很难生产制造，这是不行的。慢慢演变到Q，在设计当中要避免掉容易发生品质问题的地方。C，在制造当中对设计的采用以及模具的开发不要采用高成本的，以前通常是曲高和寡、精工打造，在设计当中就要考虑到他以后打开机器是不是用最小的力气。
现在我要特别强调一下，在笔记本电脑上面学到的经验。对Phase Review Process有什么样的要求。戴尔的任何一个产品从开发设计到产品的推出都有很严谨的过程，目标就是在每一个过程当中都有一个PRP，比如说现在定义产品，要定义到什么程度才能进入设计阶段，设计阶段完了要得到什么样的评分才能进入试产阶段，之后再进入量产阶段，到上市，上市之后要到这个产品生命周期的末端，每一道程序都要有一个评分。因为以前发生过很多，中间的过程没有去管制，也许开发过程拖了太久，结果到试产又拖了十天，量产又拖了十天，结果整个过程拖了六十天，这样你的市场占有率就降低了很多，如果你晚了半年，最后你拿到的市场占有率就缩小很多。
狭义的供应链管理
戴尔为什么会这么优化他的供应链，其实里面有几项重要因素。每一台在生产线生产的东西都是"名花有主"，通常出来之后就送到客户手上。一般所谓的链条式生产线，一台机器放在生产线一头慢慢移动，每个操作员在他那一站就加入自己所负责的零件，一直到生产线的末端。这样的Line Production通常适合同一规格大量生产，速度快、效率高，但是弹性比较差。戴尔全球的生产都是cell production，不是line。他每一个工作区的链条跑过来并不是直接穿过去，而是转个弯到我这个区域里来，这个区域里摆了各种各样的零件，有不同规格的，每一台机台上面就是一张机器的要求规格，它的要求可能跟下一台不一样，每一个批量就是一台，这个操作员就要了解这台机器要什么样的CPU，要装什么样的软件，等它再回到生产线上时已经变成一个与众不同的机器，他可能跟前一台和后一台都不一样。这就是最大的特色，戴尔电脑的客制化程度里面最与众不同的地方，也可以讲是他整个供应链里面与众不同的地方。
下一个不同的地方，所有的厂商因为跟戴尔有长期合作的关系，因此所有的合作厂商都是门当户对的，都有足够的财务能力来支撑他们跟戴尔之间的商业往来，所有这些厂商在我们的六大厂区都设有他们的循环式仓库，厂商有义务根据合约保留两个礼拜的存货。只有少数的象CPU这样的零件戴尔才有库存，这是戴尔才会有4-5天库存的原因之一。
所有的厂商都有一个很大的头痛的地方，产品到了周期后要留下来多少，或者说我们该结束的时候还有很大一部分库存。我们有一个很重要的绩效指针，如果产品在生命周期末端有太多的库存，不可容忍的库存的话，这对管理来讲就是很大的一个问题。
我把刚刚的叙述图象化。某一天九点钟到厂的有哪些东西，十一点钟到厂的有哪些东西，非常精密地描述了货物的内容，这个货柜一靠上码头门一打开才算戴尔的库存，之前不算是戴尔的库存。这里面是配料，这一端描述的是跟配料之间的关系。另一端，一旦生产完到这边包装产品之后就可以直接运到客户手上。这个材料在这里停留的时间通常是非常短的，只有几个小时，通常从零件变成产品，所以真正停留在戴尔里面的时间只有几个小时而已，这跟上一页是一样的内容，比较图象化，这是他来的时候靠向卸货码头。这已经是相当详细地描述了戴尔怎么样减少库存，优化供应链。
刚才我们叙述了广义的供应商管理到狭义的供应链管理的内涵，各位有什么问题可以共同探讨。谢谢！
经济学发展的新方向
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奚恺元 [简介]
中欧国际工商学院行为科学研究中心主任
芝加哥大学管理学院终身教授
2002年12月26日
2002年，普林斯顿大学的 Kahneman 教授和乔治梅森大学的 Smith 共同获得诺贝尔经济学奖。Kahneman 教授是一位心理学家，他和他的合作者 Tverskey 的研究成果从很多方面证实了传统经济学的一些基础理论存在的错误。我的演讲主要围绕 Kahneman 的理论及其影响，针对新经济学对传统经济学的修正以及经济学发展的新方向做一些阐述。
我主要讲新经济学和传统经济学在以下三个方面的区别：首先，在对人的行为的假设方面，传统经济学认为人是理性的，而新经济学认为人是有限理性的。其次，在理论模式上，传统经济学是规范性的，新经济学是描述性的。最后，从研究目的来讲，传统经济学主要研究如何增加人们的财富，但是我认为一个新的研究方向是研究如何从根本上增加人的幸福，这里的幸福是一个广义的概念。
传统经济学 新方向
假设： 人是理性的 人是有限理性的
理论： 规范性的 描述性的
研究目标： 财富 广义的幸福
理性和有限理性
传统经济学认为，人都是有理性的，关于理性，传统经济学有几个基本的假设，比如传统经济学相信，对于好的东西和坏的东西，人们总是愿意为好的支付更多的钱。早在上个世纪50年代，Simon 就首先对理性人这个基本假设发出了质疑，他提出了有限理性这个概念。但是一直到了Kahneman 和 Tverskey，人们才开始具体地研究人在什么时候是不理性的，在什么情况下人的行为会背离理性假设。
有两类违反理性假设的研究。第一类研究说明了人的行为有的时候会违背Dominance原则。举个例子来说，有两个比萨饼，如果他们的配料和口味等其他方面都相同，只不过一个比另外一个大一些，那么根据传统经济学的理论，人们肯定会愿意为大的比萨支付更多的钱，起码为大比萨支付的钱不会比为小比萨支付的钱少。这就是Dominance原则。但是，在现实生活中，人们在做决策的时候，并不是看一个物品的真正价值，而是用某种容易评价的线索来进行决策，这就是Evaluability的概念。
假定有两杯哈根达斯冰淇淋（见图1），一杯冰淇淋A有7盎司，装在5盎司的杯子里面，看起来满满的；另外一杯冰淇淋B是8盎司，但是装在10盎司的杯子里，所以看起来冰淇淋装得不满。客观来讲，哪一杯冰淇淋更好呢？按照传统经济学的理论，如果说人们喜欢冰淇淋，那么8盎司的冰淇淋比7盎司的多，如果人们喜欢杯子，那么10盎司的杯子比5盎司的杯子大，所以不管从哪个角度来说，传统经济学都认为人们愿意为冰淇淋B支付更多的钱。但是试验表明，在分别判断的情况下（也就是人们不能把这两杯冰淇淋放在一起比较），人们反而愿意为冰淇淋A多付钱。平均来讲，人们愿意花2.26美元买冰淇淋A，却只愿意用1.66美元买冰淇淋B。这就是说，如果这两杯冰淇淋都标价2美元，那么人们情愿选择冰淇淋A。这是为什么呢？原因在于，人们在作决策的时候，通常不是象传统经济学那样判断一个物品的真正价值，而是根据一些比较容易评价的线索来判断。在这个实验中，人们就是根据冰淇淋到底满还是不满来决定给不同的冰淇淋支付多少钱。这种行为导致的一个结果就是人们有可能在一个差的物品上花费更多的钱。
这个例子虽小，却有非常广泛的应用。我曾经在从中国回美国的时候给两个朋友分别买了两个礼物。一个是400块的羊毛围巾，另外是价值500块的大衣。把礼物送到两个朋友手里之后，两个礼物却带来了完全不同的结果。拿到400块围巾的朋友非常高兴，而且觉得我很慷慨。但是另外一个拿到500块大衣的朋友却不太高兴，尽管他拿到的大衣要比围巾贵。相对大衣来说，围巾比较便宜，一个40O块的围巾，人们就觉得这个礼物已经足够好了，它就像在实验里面那杯比较少但装得比较满的冰淇淋；而500块的大衣就让人觉得，和其它大衣比起来并不是很昂贵，就好像是比较多但装得不太满的冰淇淋。可见人们就是靠比较容易评价的线索来判断一个礼物的好坏的。这个例子引申出一个常常被人们所忽视的送礼之道。那就是，在送礼物的时候，一个礼物到底值多少钱并不十分重要，重要的是，这个礼物在它所属的类别里面是不是昂贵。在一个不太昂贵的礼物类别选择一个比较贵的礼物，要比在一个比较昂贵的礼物类别里选一个比较便宜的礼物要好得多。
还有一个例子可以说明Evaluability概念的重要应用。比方说太平上有小岛遭受台风侵袭，联合国需要决定到底给这个小岛支援多少钱。假设这个小岛上面有100O户居民，90%居民的房屋都被台风摧毁了。那么如果你是联合国官员，你认为联合国应该支援多少钱呢？但是加入这个岛上有18000户居民，其中有10%居民的房子被摧毁（你不知道前面一种情况），你这时认为联合u应该支援多少钱呢？从客观的角度来讲，后面一种情况下的损失更大。但是调查的结果，人们觉得在前面一种情况下，联合国需要支援1500万美元，但是在后面一种情况下，人们觉得联合国只需要支援1000万美元。（见表格1）
岛A 岛B
有1000户居民 有18000户居民
90%居民的房子被毁 10%居民的房子被毁
人们觉得联合国应该支援的金额：
岛A：1500万美元 岛B： 1000万美元
（表格1）
实验结果再一次说明，具体900户居民和1800户居民，如果不能互相比较，人们很难知道900户和1800户是多是少，但是百分比这个信息即使不需要比较，人们也很容易地知道90％很多，10 ％很少。这又是一个Evaluability的例子。
为了说明Evaluability的概念，我再举一个关于餐具的例子。比方说有一家家具店在清仓,你想买一套餐具。你看到一套餐具，有24件，每件都是完好的。那么你愿意支付多少钱买这套餐具呢?另外如果你看到的餐具有40件，这40件中的24件和我们刚刚提到的完全相同，而且也是完好的，此外这套餐具还有8个杯子和8个茶托，其中2个杯子和7个茶托都已经破损了。你愿意为这么餐具支付多少钱呢？（见表格2）
A套餐具（包括24个餐具） B套餐具（包括40个餐具）
8个菜碟：全部完好 8个菜碟：全部完好
8个汤碗：全部完好 8个汤碗：全部完好
8个点心碟：全部完好 8个点心碟：全部完好
8个杯子：2个已碎
8个茶托：7个已碎
实验结果：人们愿意为这套餐具支付的价格：
A套餐具：33美元 B套餐具：24美元
（表格2）
实验发现，在分别判断的时候（人们只知道其中一套餐具的情况），人们愿意为第一套餐具支付33美元，却只愿意为第二套餐具支付24美元。这个结果再次违反了传统经济学的Dominance假设。因为第二套餐具比第一套多出了6个好的杯子和1个好的茶托，人们愿意支付的线反而少了。这个例子也说明，到底24件和31件（9件不计在内）算多算少，如果不互相比较是很难判断的，但是餐具到底完好无缺还是已经破损是很容易判断的，因此人们仍旧是依据容易判断的线索做出决策。这个例子其实很有意思，引申到现实生活中 甚至可以指导我们的为人之道，那就是情愿一直做好事，做得不多但是没有做错过，也不要做了很多好事 但是做了一两件错事。
以上的例子说明了人的行为并不完全遵守传统经济学的Dominance假设。这是证明人是有限理性的一个方面。另一方面，许多行为学的研究表明，钱并不具备传统经济学所认为的替代性。钱的替代性是指钱就是钱，同样100元钱，不管是挣来的，还是赢来的，或者拣来的，对消费者来说都是一样的。但是许多研究表明并非如此。芝加哥大学商学院的Thaler教授根据钱的不完全可替代性提出了 Mental Accounting的概念。
考虑下面的情形：今天晚上你打算去听一场音乐会。票价是200块钱。在你马上要出发的时候，你发现你把你最近买的价值200块钱的电话卡弄丢了。你是否还会去听这场音乐会？大部分的回答者仍旧会去听音乐会。但是如果情况变化一下，假设昨天你花了200块钱买了一张今天晚上的音乐会票子。在你马上要出发的时候，你发现你把票子弄丢了。如果你想要听这场音乐会，你必须再花200块钱买张票。你是否还是会去听这场音乐会？大部分人回答说不去了。仔细想想，这两个回答是自相矛盾的。不管消费者丢掉的是电话卡还是音乐会票，总之是丢失了价值200元的东西从fungibility的角度来讲没有理由丢失了电话卡后仍旧去听音乐会，而丢失了票子后就不去听了。原因到底何在呢？事实上，在人们的头脑里，钱并不像传统经济学所假设的那样，具有完全可替代性。真正的情况是，人们会把不同的东西归在不同的Mental Accounts里面。电话卡和音乐会票分别在两个账户里面，所以丢失了电话卡不会影响音乐会票子所在账户的预算和支出，大部分人仍旧选择去听音乐会。但是丢了的音乐会票和后来需要再买的票子都被归在一个账户里，所以看起来就好像花了400元钱听一场音乐会一样。人们当然觉得这不合算 所以就不去了。
比方说，如果你是一个理性的人，那么对你来说，不管是挣来的钱还是一笔意外之财，对你来说应该没有什么区别。但时，一般来说，你会把自己辛辛苦苦挣来的钱存起来不舍得花，但是如果是一笔意外之财，你就很快地花掉了。这其实说明人们在头脑里分别为这两类钱建立了两个不同的账户，挣来的钱和意外之财是不一样的。另外，这个概念还可以帮助政府制订政策。比方说，一个政府如果想通过减少税收的方式刺激消费，可以有两个做法，一个是减税，即降低税收水平，另外一个是退税，就是一段时间以后返还纳税人一部分税金。这两个做法从fungibility的角度来讲没有差别，减收5％和返还5％的税是一样的。但是减税和退税在刺激消费上的作用却非常不同。人们觉得减收的那部分税金是自己本来该得的，自己挣来的，所以增加消费的动力并不大；但是返还的税金对人们来说就如同一笔意外之财，这时人们才有可能增加更多的消费。如果一个政府不明白这个道理，很有可能减少了财政收入，却起不到刺激消费的作用。
规范性理论和描述性理论的区别
第二部分主要介绍新经济学对微观经济学很重要的一个内容——风险决策理论的修正。
传统的经济学是一个规范性的经济学，也就是教育人们应该怎样做。而在心理学影响下的新经济学是一个描述性的经济学，它主要描述人们事实上是怎样做的。这就好像一个人在高速公路上开车，交通法规规定限速80公里，这是规范性的；而事实上人们在车辆稀少的时候会开到100公里，这就是一个描述性的。比方说，宗教就是规范性的，而物理学则是描述性的。从这个意义上讲，传统经济学更像是家教，而新的经济学更像是科学。
最早的风险决策理论叫做期望值理论。这个理论提出，人们是根据风险决策的期望值大小来进行选择的。比方说有两个选择，A是有30％的可能性赢2000元，B是有70％的可能性赢1000元。这两个选择的期望值分别是600和700。那么期望值理论认为人们会选择B。这个理论认为人们都是风险中立的，即人们只考虑一个选择的期望值，而不考虑它的风险大小，这是这个理论的一个很重要的假设。
但是人是否是风险中立的呢？请你思考以下这样两个选择，A是有100％的可能性赢1000元，B是有50％的可能性赢2100元，有50％的可能性一分钱也拿不到。从期望值来说，B大于A。但是如果要你来选择，你会选择哪一个呢？大部分的人会选择A。200多年前，贝努力为了解释这一现象，提出了期望效用理论。这个理论指出，财富的边际效用是递减的，50％可能性赢2100元的效用小于 100％赢1000元的效用。这个理论是一个规范性的理论，它是微观经济学一个重要的奠基石。这个理论假定人们都是风险规避的，因此人们选择100％赢1000元是完全理性的。这个理论是经济学的一大进展，也有许多政策应用。在美国，特别是民主党，非常推崇财富再分配的政策，也就是向富人多征税再分配给穷人，其理论依据就是边际效用递减。对富人来说增加1美元的效用要小于给穷人增加1美元带来的效用，所以应该把这1美元给穷人。
但是，问题在于，人们是不是任何时候都是风险规避的呢？看看下面这个问题：假定有这样两个选择，A是肯定赢1000元，B是50％可能性赢2000元，50％可能性什么都得不到。你会选择哪一个呢？大部分人都会选择A，这也说明人是风险规避的。但是再看下面的问题。假定你刚刚赢了2000元。你面临两个选择，A是你肯定损失1000元，B是你有50％可能性损失2000元，50%可能性什么都不损失。在这种情况下 你会选择什么呢？大部分人都选择B，这表明他们是风险偏爱的。可是，仔细分析一下这两个问题，你会发现它们是完全等价的。肯定赢1000元等于从赢来的2000元中肯定损失1000元；50％赢2000元也就是先赢2000元的情况下有50％可能性不损失钱50％；什么也拿不到就相当于先赢2000元的情况下有50％的可能性损失2000元。但是人们为什么在第一种情况下风险规避，在第二种情况下就变成了风险偏爱呢？
Prospect Theory能够很好地解释上面的情况。这个理论是Kahneman和Tverskey在1979年提出的，也是Kahneman今年获得经济学奖的主要原因。Prospect Theory认为，人在面临获得的时候是风险规避的，而在面临损失的时候是风险趋向的。在上面的例子中，第一种情况下，赢钱对人们来说是一种获得，所以人们选择规避风险。但是在第二种情况下，人们面临的是损失，因此人们倾向于冒风险，也就是风险偏爱的。但是，获得和损失并不是绝对的，而是相对于参照点而言的。一般来说，参照点是人们对一件事情的期望。比方说你高考的时候考了600分，对你来说到底是获得还损失呢？这要看你对自己的期望。你希望自己能考550分，那么相对于550这个参照点来说你考600分是获得。假如你希望能考650分，但是你只有600分，那么相对于650来说考600分就是损失。
根据Prospect Theory上面这三点理论，我们可以得到一个非常有意思的推论。就是说，如果改变人们在评价事物时候所使用的参照点，可以改变人们的风险偏好。看下面一个例子。假定一家公司面临两个投资决策，投资方案A肯定可以盈利200万。投资方案B有5O％可能性盈利300完，50%可能盈利100万。如果公司的盈利目标定得比较低，比方说是100万，那么方案A看起来好像是多赚了100万，而B则是要么刚好达到目标，要么多盈利200万。A和B看起来都是获得，因此员工一般是风险规避的，会选择方案A。但是如果公司把盈利目标提高到300万，那么方案A就像是少赚了100万，而B则是要么刚好达到目标，要么少赚200万。这个时候两个方案都是损失，所以员工会抱着冒冒风险，说不定可以达到目标的心理，选择有风险的投资方案B。由此可见，一个企业如果要影响其员工对风险的偏好，可以通过改变企业对业绩的期望水平的做法达到目的。
Prospect Theory还有一个非常重要的贡献，就是发现了人们对损失和获得的敏感程度是不同的，人们对损失比对获得更敏感。如果你的新邻居送给你100元的小礼品以示友好，你想想看你有多高兴。但是如果他刚来就弄坏了你的一个100元的落地灯，你对他有多讨厌呢？你对他讨厌的程度应该比前面喜欢他的程度要大得多。Thaler曾经做过这样一个实验。假设你得了一种病，有万分之一的可能性会突然死亡。有一种药吃了以后可以把死亡的可能性降到零。那么你愿意花多少钱来买这种药呢？那么现在再请你想一想，假定你身体很健康，如果说医药公司想找一些人测试他们新研制的一种药品，这种药服用后会使你有万分之一的几率突然死亡。那么你会要求医药公司做多少补偿呢？很多人回答说愿意出几百块钱来买药，但是即使医药公司花几万块，他们也不愿意参加实验。为什么第一种情况人们不愿意花钱治病，但是第二种精况，医药公司花几万块钱人们都不愿意参加实验呢？实际上就是损失规避这个心理在作怪。在第一种情况下，病已经得了，治好病是一种获得，由于人们对获得相对不敏感，所以不愿意用很多钱来换取。在第二种情况下，本身身体健康，增加死亡的概率对人们来说是一个难以接受的损失，所以人们对损失所要求的补偿就远远高于他们愿意为治病所支付的钱。
从损失规避这个概念出发，有许多问题值得我们重新思考。比方说我们前面提到过，根据期望效用理论，财富再分配是一个很好的提高总效用的政策。但是如果考虑到人们讨厌损失的话，一边是从一个人的工资里面扣除1000元，这个损失在人们的心中占了很大分量，另一方面，另外一个人收入增加1000元，后者的高兴程度不一定高于损失给前者带来的不快。在市场营销中损失规避这个概念也有非常广泛的应用。在美国购物，比方说100块的CD机，如果商店规定，支付现金，则按商品的原价计算，如果以信用卡支付，则需要支付105块。人们通常觉得没有必要承担这5块钱的损失，所以更愿意以现金支付。但是如果这个CD机本来的价格就是105元，顾客以现金支付可以优惠到100元，而用信用卡的话则以原价计算，这个时候人们就不会觉得用信用卡支付会有损失，这种定价方式可以刺激信用卡消费。而实际上在这两种定价方式下商品的价格是一样的。只不过改变了人们的参照点，从而改变了一个事物看起来是不是损失，就可以很容易地改变人们的支付方式。
财富和广义的幸福
在讲最后一部分之前，请大家思考这样一个问题：想不想换一个工资更高的工作？当然想。
但是有了更多的工资是为了什么呢？为了生活更富裕。那么生活更富裕是为了什么呢？归根到底，人们最终在追求的是生话的幸福，而不是有更多的金钱。我们的最终目的不是最大化财富，而是最大化人们的幸福。但是传统的经济学家认为增加人们的财富是提高人们幸福水平的最有效的手段。但是我们发现，财富仅仅是能够带来幸福的根小的因素之一，事实上幸福是由许多其他因素决定的。传统的经济学家关注的是如何最大化财富，但新经济学认为我们应该关心如何提高人们的幸福本身。
美国在过去的几十年中人均GDP翻了几番，但是许多研究发现，不管用什么指标什么方法测量，人们的幸福程度并没有多大的变化，压力反而增加了。这就产生了一个非常有趣的问题：我们耗费了那么多的精力和资源，增加了整个社会的财富，但是人们的幸福程度却没有什么变化。这究竟是为什么呢？
其实，人们到底是不是幸福，很大程度上取决于许多和绝对财富无关的因素。比如，有两类比较可以十人们带来幸福感。一种是时间性的比较，一种是社会性的比较。如果你最近在上海的市中心买了一套别墅，你觉得很开心。但实际上你你觉得开心只有很少一部分是因为你们在这样的房子里给你带来的，更多的是因为比较而产生的。从时间性比较来说，如果你以前住在阁楼里，那么现在你住别墅会感到非常幸福。如果你以前住的是花园洋房，那么你不会感到特别开心。这就是时间性的比较的结果。另外，从社会性比较来说，如果你和你周围的人，你的朋友同事进行比较时发现，其他人都还住普普通通的公房，而你现在有自己的别墅，你当然会很开心。如果说你周围的人现在已经都住在更好的地方了，那么你就算住在别墅里感觉舒服，你也不会非常开心。
幸福的另外一个来源是脉冲式式的变化所带来的（见图 2）。如果一个人一直过着优越的生活而没有什么变化，他是不会比一般人幸福的。也就是说，舒适并不是幸福的重要因素。但是如果一个人本身生活水平不是特别高，但是他时不时地会有一些变化，比如旅游、探险等这些脉冲式的快乐，则能使人感觉到更加本福。
此外，记忆也是幸福的一个来源。给员工奖励可以发现金，也可以给其他的东西。现在许多公司发放奖金都是直接发钱给员工。公司也可以用同样金额的钱，让员工享受一下他们平常舍不得享受的事物，比方说到高级法国餐厅吃饭，到夏威夷旅游等。从传统经济学来看，哪个更好呢？肯定是前面一种好。如果把这两种方法给员工选择的话，人们也会选择前面一种。但是，有实验表明人们反而对后面一种奖励更开心。这是因为在就餐或旅游结束后，人们还是会记得这段经历，这段美好的记忆也可以让人们感到更为幸福，奖励的效果也更好。
更多的金钱并不一定带来更多的幸福。人们选的并不总是能使他们最高兴的。我们需要有一个严格的理论来研究如何最大化人们的幸福。和经济学Economics相对应，我们把这种科学称为Hedonomics。这就是新的研究方向。我希望在不久的将来，每天晚上人们从电视上看到的不仅仅是道琼斯指数，恒生指数等，还包括跟人们生活密切相关的幸福指数等等。
此外，在总统致辞的时候，人民代表大会上国家领导人总结过去的时候，不仅仅是以GDP和投资的增加来说明自己取得的业绩，而是更多的提到人们“幸福指数”的变化。
关于2003年上半年水运经济运行情况及下半年形势分析的通报
各省、自治区、直辖市交通厅（委），上海市港口管理局，长江、珠江航务管理局，中国船东、港口、船代协会，各有关港航企业：
2003年我国国民经济开局良好，一季度国内生产总值增幅为9.9%，二季度增长6.7%，上半年国内生产总值整体增长8.2%，工农业生产持续发展。固定资产投资、进出口贸易和利用外资快速增长，社会消费稳定增加。受“非典”疫情影响，二季度经济增速减缓，固定资产投资和进出口受“非典”影响较小，消费增长的潜力还在，增势依然强劲。下半年，我国经济发展形势依然良好，预计全年经济增幅将在7%以上，外贸进出口可保持两位数的增长。
一、上半年水运经济形势及水运生产主要特点
今年以来，在我国国民经济较快增长的带动下，我国水上运输继续保持了良好的发展势头。水上货运量、港口货物吞吐量继续快速增长；国内沿海运输市场运力偏紧，运价逐步攀升；港口装卸任务繁忙，装卸效率大大提高。
1~6月份，全国水路货运量完成7.02亿吨，同比增长6.1%，周转量14100.98亿吨公里，同比增长12.4%；客运量完成7928万人，同比下降12.8%。全国主要港口货物吞吐量完成12.36亿吨，同比增长17.3%，其中外贸完成4.5亿吨，同比增长23.8%。
（一）上半年水路运输生产主要特点
1、主要港口货物吞吐量仍然保持较高增长速度
今年上半年港口生产形势依然向好，沿海、内河港口内外贸货物吞吐量增势迅猛。沿海主要港口吞吐量完成9.40亿吨，同比增长19.0%，其中外贸完成4.17亿吨，同比增长24.6%；内河主要港口完成2.96亿吨，同比增长12.3%，其中外贸完成0.33亿吨，同比增长14.6%。全国主要港口集装箱吞吐量完成2167.46万标准箱，同比增长32.4%。
尽管上半年“非典”疫情对沿海运输带来一定影响，但各个港口采取各种有效防范措施，确保了港口生产和建设的正常运行；港口货物吞吐量除内河完成量增幅略低于去年外，其余均高于去年同期。各港口在船舶、船员检疫方面增加了一些程序，增加了运输企业的船舶在港时间和运输成本，但是，由于上半年外贸运输和国内沿海运输需求强劲，市场上运力供应偏紧，运价稳中有升，企业经济效益有明显好转。
2、货运量增速减缓，客运量大幅度减少
与去年相比，今年上半年沿海运输继续保持增长态势，内河运输货量减少，远洋运输形势喜人。今年1~6月份沿海货运量1.95亿吨，同比增长14.2%，内河完成3.5亿吨，同比下跌0.1%，远洋完成1.6亿吨，同比增长14.5%。内河运量减少的主要原因一是受三峡断航蓄水期的影响，二是国内“非典”事件对运输的直接影响。
受“非典”疫情的直接影响，旅游、公务出差人员大幅减少，国内、国外旅游团队纷纷退团，大部分航线被迫停开。全社会水路客运量，内河完成4990万人，同比下降27.4%；沿海完成2762万人，同比下降19.4%；远洋完成176万人，同比下降33.3%。
3、内河货物运输与去年同期基本持平，略有增长
受三峡工程碍断航影响，长江上、中游地区货物吞吐量下降，九江（含九江）以上14个主要港口仅4个港口吞吐量超上年同期水平，而九江以下港口则全面超上年同期水平。其中江苏省区段中镇江、泰州、江阴、张家港和南通等5个港口都超过去年同期水平，是长江干线上增幅较大的地区。增长的货类主要有：钢铁、矿建材料、金属矿石、水泥、木材和粮食等。下降的货类主要有：石油天然气及制品、机械设备电器等。基本持平的货类主要有煤炭及制品、轻工医药等。
（二）上半年散货运输主要货种情况分析
1、煤炭运输
上半年，煤炭海上运力偏紧，运价高位运行。按照惯例煤炭市场在4、5月份进入淡季，海上运输船舶进入常规的维护检修和保养，而今年华南部分地区用电高峰提前到来，电煤旺盛的需求形势出人预料，再加上年初石油价格涨幅较大，增加了海上运输成本，运营船舶减少，由此造成运力供应不足。
1-6月上海航运交易所发布的沿海煤炭运价指数总体呈上扬态势，到6月27日创下上半年最高记录，报收于1173.87点，比去年同期上涨3.07%。与往年相比，不同的是今年运价指数在3月底就出现上升迹象，稳步攀升。其中五月上旬受“非典”影响，船舶运力稍有缓解，运价有所回落。
（1）煤炭进口增长有限，出口增幅提高
与去年相比，今年国际市场上煤炭运价提高，煤炭进口势头有所抑制。另外，我国煤炭出口优惠政策延长到2005年。今年1-6月我国煤炭出口形势良好，共出口4497.2万吨，同比增长10.6%。
（2）沿海煤炭运输需求旺盛，煤炭水运货源充足
今年以来，国民经济的快速增长带动了煤炭需求的增长。1-6月份全国发电量较去年同期增长15.4%，其中火力发电较去年同期增长16%。另受三峡大坝蓄水影响，长江断航2个多月，葛洲坝水电站减少水力2/3，使中南、华东地区火力发电大幅增长，煤炭消费大量增加。煤炭需求的增长为水运提供了充足的货源保障。我国沿海主要港口煤炭总发运量增加。
（3）长江四港煤炭运输情况良好
上半年，“三口一枝”共发运煤炭867.88万吨，比去年同期增长16.5%。其中浦口、裕溪口、汉口和枝城港分别发运煤炭318.74万吨、350.11万吨、157.7万吨和41.33万吨，分别为上年同期的108.77%、120.1%、97.43%和118.89%。
2、铁矿石运输
今年1-6月份，铁矿石运输市场发展平稳。尽管今年进口铁矿石价格呈逐月上涨态势，但进口矿石量依然较大，运输需求比较旺盛，运力供求稍显紧张。
由于船公司和钢厂基本上签订年度运输合同，运价年内变化不大，运价指数在1000点左右徘徊，目前较年初略高一些。1-6月份沿海铁矿石运价指数整体走势上行，在3月初有明显涨幅，主要原因中转铁矿量大幅增加所致。
（1）主要港口铁矿石接卸量继续保持增长
随着铁矿石的大量进口，今年上半年，我国沿海进口铁矿石各主要接卸港矿石接卸量为7191万吨，较去年同期增长31%。青岛、秦皇岛、天津、湛江等四港今年上半年进口铁矿石接卸量的增幅在30%以上。长江干线主要港口金属矿石吞吐量完成2391.9万吨，比去年同期增长10.5%。
（2）二、三程铁矿石运输量上升
由于沿江的一些钢厂设备改制后，钢铁产量增加，并且对矿石的品质要求提高，对进口矿石需求增加，由此带动了二、三程铁矿石运输量不断攀升。
（3）铁矿石接卸趋于集中
随着到港船舶大型化趋势明显加快，铁矿石的接卸越来越趋向国内大港。1-6月份青岛港、宁波港、上海港、天津港、舟山等五大港口共进口铁矿石5120万吨，占全国水路进口量的71.2%。青岛港自20 万吨铁矿石码头正式投产后，进口矿石的接卸和中转能力快速提升，上半年累计达1702万吨，同比增长40% 。宁波港在舟山马迹山港每月分流了近百万吨情况下，同比仍增长了10%，累计达到1262万吨。
3、石油及其制品运输
（1）原油运输
①外贸进出口原油运输量同步增长
据海关统计，我国1-6月份原油进口4380万吨，比去年同期增长32.88%；
原油进口量增加明显是我国原油加工量受到成品油市场强劲推动而高居，出现了不同以往的“淡季不淡”的现象。
②三程中转油运输量增长空间有限，二程运输也受影响
受鲁宁管道运输的影响，以及中石化将继续实行向效益相对较好的沿海石化企业倾斜的政策，对沿江炼厂继续实行限产保量，三程运输货源有限，海进江运输也受此连累。
（2）成品油运输同比增长
随着我国加入WTO，国内成品油市场逐步开放，成品油进口呈现大幅增长态势。同时，出口量有所增长，原因是由于“非典”事件，国内需求减少，为了平衡国内产量供应，两大集团调整增加出口汽、柴油量。
（三）上半年集装箱运输形势分析
2003年上半年，伴随世界经济与贸易稳步复苏之势，世界集装箱运输市场增势强劲，主要呈现以下特点：
1、运力增长明显放缓。至2003年5月1日，世界全集装箱船队规模达3099艘，617万TEU，箱位仅较2002年底新增3.4%，明显低于去年同期增幅，今年上半年船舶订造势头有增无减，新增2004年至2005年交船的订造量58.9万TEU。
2、运输需求保持旺盛。上半年，亚欧和跨太平洋两大主干线需求保持强劲增长，以中国为主要增长点的亚洲出口独领风骚。第一季度，亚欧西行运量较上年同期增长了23%，亚洲至北美西海岸运量也同比增长15%。第二季度，随着货运旺季的到来，运输需求更加趋于旺盛。总体上看，上半年运输需求增长略高于运力增长，在一定程度上缓解了供需矛盾，需求与供给呈现出基本平衡的状态。
3、班轮运价稳步攀升，租金价格持续走高。由于市场供求的良性发展，班轮运价呈稳步攀升之势。年初，远东班轮公会等各大公会或协议组织纷纷公布了航线运价上调计划，运费水平稳步上升。船舶租金价格也逐月走高，2000TEU型以上的大型船舶倍受青睐。各船型的租金价格基本恢复到2000年市场鼎盛时期的平均水平。
4、我国外贸集装箱运输形势良好。今年上半年我国外贸进出口总值达3761.4亿美元，比去年同期增长39％。其中出口1903.2亿美元，增长34％，进口1858.2亿美元，增长44.5％，累计实现贸易顺差45亿美元。对主要地区进出口而言，日中双边贸易总额达609.1亿美元，增长36.1％，仍排在第一位。美国仍为我国第二大贸易伙伴和第一大出口市场，总额564亿美元，增长34.4％。欧盟第三，贸易总额达到了555.1亿美元，增长44.2％。我国与其他主要贸易伙伴双边贸易增长速度也均超过了20％，其中与东盟和韩国的双边贸易增长速度超过40％。我国进出口贸易的强劲上升促进了外贸运输市场欣欣向荣。
5、港口吞吐量增长迅猛，运输需求持续旺盛。今年上半年，港口吞吐量继续呈高增长态势，全国主要港口累计完成集装箱吞吐量2167.5万TEU，较上年同期增长32.4%，其中，沿海港口完成吞吐量2031.8万TEU，较上年同期增长33.1%，内河港口完成吞吐量135.7万TEU，较上年同期增长21.9%。远洋航线第一季度淡季不淡，平均舱位利用率居高不下，近洋航线运量较去年同期也有明显的增长。
6、非典对班轮运输的负面影响不明显。班轮运输船舶的货物在港与其他运输船舶一样，需经过严格的检查程序，非生产性停时和运输成本有所增加，但是对货物运量没有较大影响。从我国经济内在活力来看，经济增长处于中期性强势状态，非典对其冲击估计是短时的、局部性的，不会影响长期增长趋势。
7、国内及内支线集装箱运量保持增长。1~6月份，上海港完成内支线吞吐量41.1万TEU，同比增长27.1%；南京港完成内支线吞吐量9.2万TEU，同比增长30%；青岛港完成内支线吞吐量7.46万TEU，增幅最为显著，达117.9%。长江、沿海和环渤海湾三大内支线运输发展速度较快。但据企业反映，由于市场的激烈竞争和航道水深限制等，船公司经营无法实现规模效应，运价一路走低，盈利水平令人堪忧。
内贸集装箱运输市场在国内经济的支撑下，也表现出高增长特征，主要港口内贸集装箱吞吐量同比增长明显，主要航运公司的运量大幅上升。前6个月，中海集团累计完成内贸集装箱运量55.8万TEU，同比增长20.1%；中远集团完成内贸集装箱运量17万TEU，同比增长54.5%。非典对内贸运输的影响主要表现在货源结构的调整上，4、5月份瓷砖等建材运输需求略有减少，而新鲜果蔬的需求明显增多。
（四）上半年水运基础设施建设
为满足我国内外贸航运运输需求的快速发展，全国主要港口加快航道、港口等基础设施建设，2003年将新增深水泊位17个，新增港口吞吐能力3400万吨。但总体上，我国目前大型专业化深水码头短缺，集装箱码头吞吐能力不足，沿海主要港口航道不能适应船舶大型化的要求。我国今后将重点加强大型专业化港口的建设，使沿海港口向专业化、大型化、集约化运输方向发展。
今年，我国沿海港口建设项目较多。其中：大连港大窑湾二期工程、大窑湾25万吨级矿石码头工程、30万吨原油码头、6 X 10万立方米原油储罐、新港区油码头改扩建，全部按计划开工建设，工程进展情况正常；营口港成品油及液体化工品码头工程、三期工程多用途泊位、52#53#集装箱泊位、粮食中转设施，二港池顺岸工程，全部按照年初计划顺利建设，51#集装箱泊位在今年10月试生产；河北神华黄骅港一期工程同步建成3.5万吨级泊位一个，5万吨级泊位两个。二期煤码头共3个泊位，其中10万吨级泊位1个、5万吨级泊位两个，另合资兴建两万吨级液体化学品码头和罐区；天津港南疆20万吨级通用散货泊位主体工程今年年底竣工；青岛港开工建设中国最大的液体化工码头。
长江基本建设迎来了历史上少有的建设发展时期，上游的兰叙段、三峡库区淹没复建工程，中游的界牌水道应急加固工程、碾子湾浅水道整治、张南水道整治主体工程和下游的南京至浏河口航路改革配套航标建设等工程已全面开工建设。
二、存在的主要问题
总的来说，沿海、内河航运发展总体形势较好，但仍存在着一些不容忽视的问题。
（一）沿海港口通过能力不足。吞吐能力不足与货物通过量急剧上升的矛盾仍然存在。目前，在我国沿海港口中深水泊位仅占10%却承担了 90%的货物吞吐量。随着港口集装箱吞吐量的迅猛增长，各大港口生产泊位偏紧，港口吞吐能力不足的矛盾日益突出。
（二） 运力结构还不太合理。从今年的水运经济形势看，国际干线集装箱运力已显不足；近洋集装箱航线运力有些过剩；沿海运输中小吨位的船舶偏多，大吨位船舶略显紧张。
（三）长江三峡双线五级船闸实际通过能力影响船舶营运效率。从试通航以来的实际运行情况看，船闸实际运行闸次与理论设计闸次存在较大差距，船舶积压排队候闸状况比较严重，对船舶运行效率和航运成本影响很大。长江上船型杂乱，也是影响提高长江通过能力和航行安全的主要因素之一。
（四）国际集装箱运输的潜在困难与问题。美伊战争导致油价上涨，国际燃油价格急剧攀升，增加了运输企业生产成本和经济负担。美国装船前24小时舱单申报制度，使得我国港口到美国的航线的货物运输作业复杂，延长了备货期，运输和贸易成本相应增加。日本航线运价竞争日益加剧，年初运价不及2001年的50%，个别航线4月份将运价拼杀到“零” ，6月份甚至出现负运价，月平均舱位利用率最高的仅为77%，最低不到60%。运价的频繁波动和下跌，使得船公司近洋航线的经营处于动荡局面。
三、下半年水运经济形势展望
随着国家宏观经济环境的改善，一系列政策的出台将会逐步消除“非典”疫情所带来的负面影响。国家将进一步加快船队结构调整步伐，改善沿海运力结构状况；内河船型标准化工作加快推进；港口、航道等基础设施建设不断加强，国际近洋航线市场监管加强，市场竞争状况会有所改善。国内水路货物运输将继续保持快速增长态势。
历经多年的《港口法》的出台，将会大大加快港口体制改革的步伐，推进水运法律法规体系不断健全，市场机制进一步完善，市场整顿力度加大，市场秩序逐步规范，对于促进我国港口生产将会起到积极的推动作用。
三峡蓄水至135米后，长江上游三峡库区航道条件和通航环境得到改善，将降低船舶运输成本。长江干线货物吞吐量、外贸吞吐量可望保持一定幅度的增长。由于“非典”对正常经济贸易的干扰，不可避免地影响新贸易合同的签订，可能会造成下半年货运量增幅下降。客运将会随着“非典”疫情的有效控制以及旅游禁令的解除逐步恢复，并较上半年有一定幅度增长。
1、煤炭
今年我国煤炭产量增幅较大，上半年产量总体上大于销量的增长幅度。全年煤炭生产总量控制在13.5亿吨左右。在保持国内煤炭供求平衡的前提下，国家已经明确延长鼓励煤炭出口政策，煤炭出口力争9000万吨，比2002年增长5%，预计今年电力需求增幅将会稳定在10%左右，增加煤炭用量7000万吨以上；一系列重大基础设施项目的推进及相关行业继续保持快速发展，估计冶金用煤仍将增长2000万吨以上，达到2.2亿吨左右。
下半年煤炭运输市场仍将稳中有升，水运货源依然充足。此外，夏季用电高峰已经到来，煤炭运输需求将持续旺盛，“北煤南运”继续保持增长。长江下游电力企业的纷纷扩容，为内河煤炭运输形势进一步趋好奠定了基础。下半年煤炭运力稍有增加，供求趋于平衡，运价保持相对稳定。
2、铁矿石
今年钢铁工业继续保持了生产高速增长。随着国家基础建设投资的进一步加大，房地产、机械制造业、汽车和家电等耐用消费品行业的旺盛需求，以及我国造船业的迅猛发展，预计我国今年钢材消费量继续稳步增长。由于国产铁矿石无法满足需求，且国内矿的品质不符合大部分钢厂炼钢的要求，进口铁矿石将继续保持较高幅度的增长。
下半年铁矿石运输市场仍将继续保持持续增长的势头。预计2003年中国将进口1.3-1.4亿吨铁矿石，进口量仍大幅增长。二、三程运输货量充足。内河铁矿石运输保持上升态势。运力供求基本平衡，运价稳中有升。
3、石油及其制品
为了满足国民经济增长发展需要，全国原油加工量和主要产品产量将会适当增加。预计2003年全国原油总加工量为2.2亿吨以上。从国内需求来看，随着国民经济快速增长和全社会汽车保有量快速增长，油品的需求旺盛。今年我国原油的进口量有一定起伏，但整体形势为谨慎乐观。目前国家发改委指出受“非典”影响，国内油品消费下降，应适当调整原油进口进度。随着非典疫情得到有效控制，旅游等行业复苏，燃料油、航油需求增加，下半年成品油南方销区需求回升，运量将增加。
4、集装箱
据估计，非典对贸易的滞后影响将在未来1-2个季度内显现，第三季度外贸增长幅度可能有所回落。在“非典”疫情有效及时得到控制、中央以及各级政府部门积极采取刺激经济、扩大外贸的鼓励措施下，贸易签约情况较好，运输旺季稍微滞后，可能延续到第四季度。预计全年集装箱港口吞吐量将有25%以上的增幅。由于船公司在上半年的运力投入比较谨慎，下半年运力投入计划增幅也不高，预计全年供需仍将保持基本平衡。总体上，运价经过一年多的恢复，已经到了一个供求双方均认为较合理的范围之内，干线船公司多数实现盈利。下半年，远洋航线运价上调的速度和幅度将有所减缓，美线、欧线将基本保持年中水平；近洋航线中，日本航线则依赖于夏季运输的货源增长情况，如果增长明显，则运价持续低迷的状况将会有所改观，但供过于求的问题不能从根本上得到解决，日本航线运价恢复的难度仍然很大。
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